I'd be a filthy traitor too

Hat tip: Tim Blair.

Your 'Do You Want the Terrorists to Win' Score: 98%

You are a terrorist-loving, Bush-bashing, "blame America first"-crowd traitor. You are in league with evil-doers who hate our freedoms. By all counts you are a liberal, and as such cleary desire the terrorists to succeed and impose their harsh theocratic restrictions on us all. You are fit to be hung for treason! Luckily George Bush is tapping your internet connection and is now aware of your thought-crime. Have a nice day.... in Guantanamo!

Do You Want the Terrorists to Win?
Quiz Created on GoToQuiz

Australia to send more troops?

Cheney's on his way to 'Staya to ask for more troops... I wonder what Howard will say?

Hicks home "regardless" of trial outcome

Various media are quoting government sources as saying Hicks will be home by the end of the year apparently regardless of the outcome of his upcoming trial. This remarkable turnaround is both good news and an indictment on the Howard government.

Howard's initial attitude to Hicks was to declare him guilty by geographical association. He repeatedly declared Hicks a terrorist (Costello too, as recently as yesterday), deserving of his inhumane incarceration, despite Hicks having never been tried. In the last twelve months, Howard's battlers have become increasingly sympathetic to Hicks' plight if not his case, causing Howard to soften his position slightly. Recently, he made the claim that he could have had Hicks bought home at any point if he'd wanted but didn't think it appropriate (despite the fact that the UK did).

Now that he's finally realised Hicks will hurt him at the polls, Howard's trying to minimise the damage by saying he'll be bought home regardless of the verdict in the sham-trial that will soon begin. I bet that won't be until after the election - Hicks presence in Australia as either a free man or as a prisoner would severely damage the Liberals electoral prospects.

Blackcaps back from the brink

I've got to admit that when the Blackcaps lost their opening games in the CB series in Australia, I thought they were very ordinary and wasn't looking forward to the World Cup. It was the first time I'd seen Taylor and Fulton though and they looked good however they weren't being supported and even Fleming looked like he was in trouble.

But what an amazing turnaround. Not only did they beat Australia with ten wickets in hand, they then chase down 300+ and win with balls to spare.


Sure there's no Gilly or Punter but the Australian's have to be feeling a little wary going to the Windies and Fleming's got every right to claim that NZ are the dark horse.

Rationing toilet paper: damnation without relief

DFAT confirms that David Hicks access to toilet paper is restricted to 30 sheets at a time. If it wasn't so obscene, it'd be funny - in fact, I'm sure Rowan Atkinson had a gag about there being no toilets in hell because, as the Bible says, it's "damnation without relief".

Is it Tim or Neil?

Tim Finn's playing the Enmore tonight to spruik his new album, Imaginary Kingdom. I saw him at a record release last year and I have to say I was a little disappointed - I'm not one of the Finn-fans that seem to need to prefer one Finn over the other and have seen Tim solo on a number of occassions and really enjoyed him.

The SMH story promoting his gig sadly confuses him with Neil - after first saying he is occasionally overshadowed by Neil... check out the little map that accompanies the story.

thingsmyboyfriendsays

I wonder if any of the eight subscribers to backin15 will be offended by this site? Vegan bread is particularly funny but there are others...

hat tip: browncardigan

Jonny nail...

Nope; but if you stop-motioned cows or dolphins (my fav) doing it in semaphore, that'd be a little bit cool?

This is my son David Hicks

GetUp is an independent, progressive, political movement.

Their latest campaign is focused on getting David Hicks a fair trial. With their support, this ad, is screening in Australia.

Hicks appalling detention is shaping as a major issue in the coming federal election, I only hope there's more enlighted than reactionary voters?

Better than Keith Quinn's inarticulate grunting...

Actually, I do like that famous Quinn comment as Lomu stormed over the hapless Mike Catt, however this is better.

This is the commentary from the 2002/03 Ashes test in which Steve Waugh performed under immense pressure, pressure to retain his place in the side, on the third day at the SCG (Real Media here).

What I particularly like is the exchange between Kerry O'Keefe, a former Australian test player, and Jonathan Agnew, some English bloke, which includes this:

Agnew: There's a deep square leg, and a man behind from there at deep backward square. There's no one straight back, will Waugh dare come down the pitch and try and hit Dawson over the top?

O'Keefe: I think he's going to run down the pitch. They've had a chat, he and Gilchrist, Hussien's dragging it out. He's got two men in the out-field, but he's got mid-off and mid-on quite shallow.

Agnew: But he could come back tomorrow! He could come back and flick at good old Harmisson, a bit of a loosener on leg stump, pick it off for two...

O'Keefe: Stuff the silver, we come for the gold! Pom's would come back tomorrow, Aussies want it now! We're instant people. Come on Stephen!

Agnew: Now, Hussien's said whatever he wants to say. And Key has gone out to backward point. Oh, he hasn't finished fiddling! Vaughan's coming in. And deep mid-wicket's coming in.

O'Keefe: He's going to play the slog-sweep. All three are going over or he gets his hundred. If Dawson pitches middle-and-off, he's in the frame but so's Steve Waugh because he's just got, you know he's going to play this stroke...

Agnew: Oh this is extraordinary....

O'Keefe: It's death or glory off the last ball of the third day...

Agnew: He's going to block it. 233 for five. Here we go. Dawson comes up and bowls to Waugh who drives... and drives through the offside for his hundred... that is extraordinary... and Steve Waugh; a man of little emotion, can barely restrain himself now. His helmet's off... Alec Stewart shakes his hand... You could not have scripted anything more remarkable than we've seen here this afternoon..."

You can watch it here if you'd like, the commentary's not nearly so good but...

La Sagrada Familia

Chippy's been to Barcelona - I lurve Barcelona, would damn well live there if only I was gorgeous, young and, well Spanish. Anyhoo, Sagrada Familia is the only building I've ever seen in my life that quite literally left me speechless. To me, it seems alive, organic even.

I can feel a pulse

Despite a hiatus of some weeks, I am still alive.

A holiday to NZ interupted blogging and a heavy workload continues to frustrate. Nevertheless, there's a few things on my mind.

1. NZ internet speeds are woeful - dial-up in Hamilton was better than broadband in Akl.
2. The Mount is still pretty cool but much more development could turn it into Brisvegas.
3. Tui are plentiful in Akl - horray.
4. I watched a compilation of All Blacks games from '96 to 2006; Justin Marshall really was that good, Cullen was as good a Wing as he was a Fullback (but not Centre), Mehrtens had the most sublime pass, what did Alatini do wrong specifically?
5. Australia are right to rest Gilly and Punter and NZ may still struggle in the Chappell/Hadlee but the Australians are vulnerable as the English have proven (and, weather permitting, the bloody Poms may even win the ODI competition - rain has delayed the current game at the SCG - wish I was there... oh Gilly's gone; bowled, lovely ball that and now Pup too - beautiful seaming outswinger, marvelous).
6. Incompensurability.
7. Rudd's advert is very very good and the next federal election will be closer than the last.
8. Apparently John Howard's angry about David Hicks - what that he's not dead or hopelessly guilty?
9. Saint Clair Sauvignon Blanc 2006
10. Parfum is out at the movies soon, it'd better be good...
    

Vale James Edwards Jnr

I generally avoid personal posts on this blog but I'm going to make an exception to mark the death of James Edwards Jnr.

Jim died earlier this week after a brief illness, he was 89 and, according to family back in NZ, he accepted that his time was up. Jim was an accomplished poet and playwrite. His book, Absent without Leave, was made into a movie in 1992 (starring Craig McLaughlin) and told the story of Jim's brief departure from duty to look after his pregnant wife, Daisy. I suspect he did not see this as the high point in his career (he also read his own story on RNZ's Nine to Noon show).

Jim was the son of James Edwards Snr. He was also the older brother of my grandfather, Brian (himself a former deputy mayor of Manukau and Labour Party stalwart). James Edwards Snr. was an infamous womaniser, larrikin and Communist. He was convicted for his part in the 1932 Queen St. riots. His part, incidentally, was to be clubbed over the head and fall to the floor bleeding profusely. I suspect had he not be bashed, he'd have said something certain to result in his conviction but the enthusisam of the local Constabulary denied him this opportunity.

Jim and Brian did not know luxury - I recall stories of them selling cleaning products door-to-door - neither ever forgot what it was like to be poor and Brian remained a salesman until his death in '99 (I'll never forget the weight of his coffin).

Vale Jim. I remember many afternoons entirely confused by your crib board, entranced by your banter, choked by the smoke, greedy for the dregs of your beer (anyone's would've done). I also remember wandering door-to-door selling you books...

OzPolitics test

Span, kakariki, Idiot/Savant have done it so too as Farrar.

I think I'm one of the few ex-pats to have done it and the results are anything but surprising... centre-left, centre-left, centre-left...

I generally describe myself as more economically-liberal than this test suggest. No mind.

Minsterial infallibility

A colleague of mine is having a frustrating time at the moment as she wrestles with the implementation a decision her Minister has recently, and very publicly, made. Such is the life of officials but it made me think about one of the fundamentals of working with government: Ministerial infallibility.

Ministerial infalliability requires that once Ministers have taken a decision, that decision must be (a) implemented (b) successful and (c) popular.

Anyone of these requirements can cause officials headaches. In my colleague's situation, the challenge is (a) and (b). Popular is why it was approved regardless of the fact that the original advice to the Minister recommended against it and it's an election year and Ministers need to open, announce, expand etc so mere logistical challenges must be overcome. As is often the case in this kind of situation, the difficult parts of the program have been shifted well past the election so that any problems do not wind up in the press on the eve of the poll.

In my experience, smart Ministers ask for advice and mostly take it. It's risky to make a decision that goes against the advice not least of all because it exposes the Minister to far greater criticism. Better to not ask for advice if you think you'll not like it - at least then you can then spin that officials never advised you...

Occassionally, officials mistakenly believe that there advice must be followed and that reluctant Ministers simply haven't understood well enough. That can be the case, however most of the politicans that I've worked for have pretty extensive networks and are much closer to the electorate than is recognised. Desk research and journal subscriptions can't provide the insight of endless bowling club BBQs, rotary meetings and the experience of sitting in at the local community law centre.

The progam in question will be successful, eventually - it's been rushed which is the problem and will not produce the desired impact in the time available. If there's a change in Minister, odds are that it'll be quietly cut after 6 months to be rebadged and relaunched as the new Minister's program. If the same Minister survives the election and Cabinet, officials will find a way to reframe the project just before it fails and, in doing so, remind the Minister of their original insight.

Johnny come lately

Howard's apparently told Bush that he needs to try Hicks asap:

"I discussed this matter with the president at some length yesterday and he's been left in no doubt the strength of feeling of the Australian government"

I can't help but think Howard's dressing up the conversation a little?

Where's the amazing rush of energy I was promised?

Day four of the diet, which I've been following pretty rigourously, and no sudden rush of energy? What gives, I've eschewed all of my favourite toxins for damn-near 100 hours and still feel pretty much how I did when I indulged. Mrs backin15 assures me Nirvana is around the corner; I'm giving it another 72 hours...

Could all the boomers please exit through the side door?

I have reached a point in my career where I am increasingly intolerant of the Baby Boomers who come to work simply to maximise their superannuation payouts (which is not all of them but at least twice too many). I don't mind that they're not as committed to their work as I am to mine, I'm frustrated that they won't either move on/out of the way nor will they accept they're out of date.

That said, I know a number of Boomers who have remained up to date and who's experience means that they can distinguish what is genuinely a new problem/solution from just new-speak - these people are invaluable and I seek them out whenever I can. I've no desire to repeat previous mistakes and appreciate how an extra 10 or 20 years can provide additional insight (I've always like the cliche; the ability to distinguish the signal from the noise).

Is there a solution? Boomers present a major challenge to the current and immediate working age group (which is shrinking relative to non-working age population in most modern post-industrial democracies). If they retire, we have to fund their massive super payouts (scares the hell out of State and Federal Treasuries in Australia). If they don't retire, they'll continue to be little more than ballast...

I feel somewhat better for having got that off my chest, but I still gotta deal with it tomorrow morning...

Diet

I've never been a dieter - never, never, never.

I remember, years and years ago, John Walker doing an advert for Chelsea suger which ended with him saying "everything in moderation is good for you". I completely agree, however I can't claim to have been moderate for the last little while (it might have been longer than that actually).

Anyway, Mrs backin15 does some sort of cleansing/purifying thing every year around this time and always feels great. This year I think I'll join in... it's only 7 days (or 15 if you want but let's be realistic) however the diet requires:

• no coffee
• no booze
• no dairy
  
• no red-meat
• no sugar or salt or pepper
  
• and nothing refined/manufactured.

Basically it's fruit, veges, gruel and dietry fibre supplements ... ho-freak'n-ray!

US Presidential election

Speculation about who'll be the leading candidates for both the Dems and the GOP will intensify over the next 6 months. I'm picking that McCain and Edwards will be amongst the final few in the lead up to the primaries - both are infinitely preferable to the incumbent.

I'd not heard of Edwards until he pulled out of the Democratic race last time. He looks pretty impressive to me. Here's a link to a couple of recent interviews (in the first, it appears he believes McCain will get the nod from the GOP).

Left Behind: God's Quake-enhance wrath

The Daily Show's This Week with God segment review's the latest Christian-themed video games.

Man, I think I'll put off buying the faux-violence of Hitman in preference for the apocalypse - the levels are soooo open-ended.

Comparing higher education funding in NZ and Australia

There's no doubt that Australian universities receive more government funding than do their NZ counterparts. Many measures confirm this. I suspect, but am not certain, that they also receive more corporate and charitable funding too.

This latest study, commissioned by the NZ Vice Chancellors' Committee, compares NZ Universities with a select number of Australian ones. And, although it confirms what most already know, I can't help but thinking that comparing the eight richest Australian universities with all but one of NZ's eight universities skews the results of the study.

Because I can't yet find the actual report online, I can't see what approach was adopted however the sampling may affect its credibility.

It's very difficult to compare public funding across the Tasman. GDP figures are available, but the published material for NZ needs to be disgregated to identify only the public funding for university operating expenses (i.e. excluding all other funding for students and other parts of the tertiary sector). This very point is made in the report linked to above (page 98, para 389).

Although I believe more funding for Universities may well be justified and beneficial, I can't yet see where it should come from or why?

Hat tip: The Thorndon Bubble

Ten things I'll likely not do in 2007

Forget your New Year's resolutions, they're passe frankly. What are the things you thought about resolving but then decided against, knowing all too well you didn't stand a chance?

1. Polish the car
2. Not buy the promotional two for the price of one wine (pretending that I'm expanding my tastes)
3. Only ever drink after 5pm
4. Have at least two alcohol-free days per week
   
5. Buy only second-hand books
6. Incur no parking fines or late fees for DVDs
7. Give the CDs I buy as gifts for friends to them without first burning them to the 'puter
8. Not play Tonkapom or Last Man Standing or Stick Cricket while on work calls
9. Not put people on hands-free (I'm sooooo busy that I need to play games and talk to you about your shitty work)
10. Not buy Whopper burgers when pissed.
    

1986: the year of excess

Oh god, I remember too much of this, certainly too much of Gloss - although I have no regrets about remembering Chelsea/Lisa Chappell.

Hattip: Phil Whoar.

Errors with TTLB

Occassionally I notice errors with the TTLB system, usually because my status has jumped around wildly for no apparent reason. Unfortunately, I'm not sufficiently proficient with the technology to know what's causing the errors or whether there's anything I can do to reduce them?

The latest glitch has elevated me from Lowly Insect to Slithering Reptile - apparently the result of gaining 45 links... go figure?

David Hicks: Australian alone

The media have carried two stories in two days about the prolonged, and likely unjust, incarceration of David Hicks. I hope this signifies the (re)start of pressure on the Government to take action to defend the rights of its citizens.

The first story is based on comments by former Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser, a critic of Howard, that Hicks had been "totally deserted by the Australian government". Fraser also doubts the validity of evidence against Hicks given the likelihood it was extracted through torture - both the US and Australian governments have denied Hicks has been tortured but this denial requires us to accept as legitimate treatment such as waterboarding.

The second story covers comments by Australia's new director of military prosecutions, Brigadier Lynette McDade (background here). McDade simply states the maxim that justice delayed is justice denied:

"It is too long. Nobody should be held without trial in custody for that long, nobody, and if we did that you can imagine the hue and cry."

Musical meme

Sometime back, a friend visiting from the UK made a comment about my CD collection that got me thinking about how and when I've heard something distinctly different compared with what I was listening to around that time.

Usually friends, television or a good review/recommendation puts you on to a band but occassionally you discover something yourself - I know it's really only the illusion of discovery but it's still exciting to be one of the first of your social circle to be listening to a particular sound and to introduce others.

So this is a music meme, list your five self discoveries in the order of most recent to oldest discoveries with bonus points for official websites and links to videos (official, pirated or dodgy camera-phone concert footage).

My top five self discoveries are:

1. 2003. Meshell Ndegeocello. I first heard Ndegeocello's Peace beyond Passion at a cafe in Newtown, Sydney. This album remains one of my top 10. Stunning voice, incredible bass player with funk-style titrated directly from Bootsy Collins. Check out Leviticus: Faggot

2. 1988. Living Colour. Unbelievably, I was introduced to Living Colour while watching Entertainment Tonight - that tacky US entertainment show of an entirely beige palette. Nonetheless, they previewed a band reputed to be the first Black heavy metal band (I'll let others argue that point). Classic tracks include I want to know (from the Vivid album) and Fight the Fight (from Time's Up). This link is to a live version of Open letter to a landlord.

3. Mid '80s. The The. I first heard the album Infected (really cool people knew the earlier albums Soul Mining if not Burning Blue Soul) and was hooked. Here's a great link to, I think, a recent live gig - about a third of the way through is the very song I first heard, Heartland (lyrics here).

4. Mid '80s. Robbie Robertson. First heard on Radio with Pictures, Karen Hay was the host so it can't have been much after the mid '80s (1986 I think). Somewhere down the crazy river remains one of my favourite tracks.

5. Early '80s. Waterboys. Ok, this is a little outside the rules I set 'cause I stole a video tape from my brother without realising what was on it. I first heard This is the Sea - can't find that but can find A Pagan Place.

The best team one year out

The All Blacks have been the best team in the world most of the last twelve years but have missed out at the World Cup in the '95 final, the '99 quarter final and again at the 2003 quarter final. Just so we don't all start prematurely celebrating, here's a reminder of what happened each time.

1. First, the dropgoal in '95. Forget the fact that it was extra time.
   
2. Next, France knock us of in '99.
   
3. Finally, Australia and Mortlock steal a win against all expectation in 2003.

If you want another reminder, there's that little gem of wisdom provided by George Gregan to the All Black forwards in the dying moments of the '03 quarter final, "four more years boys, four more years".

10 greatest guitar riffs

Browncardigan links to this site that shows you the tab/sheet music for a selection of the 10 greatest guitar riffs - gotta say that, although they were never my cup of tea, Guns N' Roses Sweet Child O Mine is pretty cool.

One for crasster I suspect.

One day Roger Finch, one day

Ok, so that's got nothing to do with shit but I can't think of a way to introduce yet another browncardigan sourced clip - this one is stop motion animation (a fav of the 'bc' crew).

Some readers may nevertheless wish to suggest where the title of the entry came from... prizes may be available.

Dead-set comic genius

Post-it dance. Dance post-it, dance. Now break, jive, break - Travolta! Now die!

See it here. You guessed, Browncardigan.

Cooler stuff, doubt it.

Updating the threads

First up, Rudd's ascention to the leadership has clearly resonanted with the electorate according to this story in today's Australian. Newspoll gives Labor a 10-point lead in primary votes over the Coalition. With a year to run, lots can change and Howard is an expert politician however this at least is some vindication for the leadership spill.

In related developments, Rudd also appears to have had genuine success selecting his front bench. Factions are notoriously powerful in state and federal Labor and frequently put up candidates for no other reason but that they're from this or that faction - tragic indictment on Labor frankly - however Rudd insisted on some new blood including Peter Garrett and appears to have won. Interestingly, Swan - a major backer of Beazley - has retained his shadow Treasurer's responsibility. This decision is being described as both a factional detente and a restoration of an old friendship between Rudd and Swan.

Howard's dog whistle politics are at full volume with the announcement of a revamped citizen test which includes an examination on Australian values and culture and an English language test.

Lastly, on more banal but nevertheless important issues, Sydney cabbies are in the news for charging huge fares, $150 - $200, to take people from Homebush to the city - a 20 minute drive - after the Robbie Williams concert. Sydney cabbies are shockers, many are thugs and thieves, some are flat-out psychos.

Changes introduced last year means that cabbies are not allowed to tout for business (as they were doing here), they must accept passengers/fares regardless of destination and not attempt to negotiate price. Yeah right. Mrs backin15 and I were out late Friday night and had exactly the same experience - cabbie pulls up, turns off his "availabe light", asks where we're going (not too far) and then decides that he's actually off duty. Bastard. Only redeeming feature of cabbies is this blog - Adrian's a top bloke (only wish I could find him when I need him).

Please, please, please give Eddie the job

Eddie Jones wants to coach England; brilliant - if his salary demands are too great, I can think of 4 million people who'll happily chip in to make up the difference.

Winston Peters on Aus Lateline

Just saw Winston on Lateline, ABC's late night news show on the Fiji coup.

He was very good, he seemed a little hesitant in places - very uncharacteristic - but was reasonable, sensible and conciliatory. Diplomatic even. Gwad.

Rudd and Gillard new Labor leadership

Kevin Rudd has beaten Kim Beazley to take the top spot in federal Labor. Gillard is his deputy - it's a good balance between the right and left and both present a clear contrast with Howard and Costello. Gillard will be subjected to the same vile rumour Helen Clark has been throughout her career - she strikes me as a very strong, intelligent character. Rudd's apparently not well liked within the party though from the perspective of an interested bystander, I have to say I like him.

In a tragic coincidence, Kim Beazley's brother died this morning.

Wellington in a week...

I've got myself invited to a party in Wellington, flights included - great stuff.

There are many things I miss about Wellington, friends particularly and besides catching up with loads of them, here's some of the things I'm looking forward to:

1. Drink an Arano Feijoa Frenzy
2. Eat the beef stronganoff from Wishbone
3. Have a beer at Lovelocks
4. Have a coffee at Masi (and probably Lido)
   
5. Wander about Oriental Parade
6. Have the chicken curry at Kopi
7. A drink or two at Concrete (Is Bar Bodega still around?)
8. Visit Smoke CDs (Slow Boat and Real Groovy too)
9. See a band (I'd welcome recommendations - bands and venues)
10. Any chance the Pohutukawa on the Terrace might bloom early?
    

Regrets

I like the saying that you only ever regret the things you didn't do, rather than those you did.

I regret not getting on a plane and flying to Sydney in late November 1996 to see the final Crowded House concert. Hard to believe it was ten years ago. Sorry that a reunion isn't possible. Vale Paul Hester.

Thanks TVNZ for this interview with Neil Finn - good to hear a new solo album isn't far away (I could review the launch gig for Tim's latest effort which I attended at the Basement in Sydney a month or so back but I can't bring myself to say what I really thought).

National's health spokesperson in punch-up

Good god. A former GP, now front bench health spokesperson accepting hospitality from British American Tobacco. Serious misjudgement. Being an obnoxious twat and getting smacked on the nose at said corporate shindig... hard to challenge the government when you're sat on your arse!

I'll leave others to speculate as to why he's not pressing charges.

Gotta love Simon Power's involvement: didn't see a thing, didn't think hanging out with a cigarette firm was an issue, wasn't aware his trousers were on backwards...

Movember 3

What is it about blokes and 'tach's?

These two appear to be trying to enter a poor man's mile high club.

Movember 2

Crasster's a creative fella...

Took Mrs backin15 a little while to work out (which I find vaguely disturbing).

Anyway the 'tach is gone now until next year.

Movember

Movember ended yesterday so the 'mo goes however, here's photo from the Movember party held at Luna Park in Sydney.

Was damn good fun, particularly the dodgems - you still get in trouble for going the wrong way, but now at least you can tell the attendants to get stuffed and carry-on regardless.

For the record, I think the three of us raised close to $1,000

Rudd v Beazley

After several weeks of intensifying rumour, Beazley's called a leadership ballot for Monday - Rudd will challenge with Gillard - frankly, I hope they win. Beazley's average and old and will lose to Howard. Rudd may too but at least he's got a chance.

Got em', gone!

After a lengthy but unproductive time at the crease, Brash has been given out LBW; Lying Bumbling Womaniser.

Wow, wikipedia updated already!

Ashes

I love cricket and have succumbed to the lure of the Ashes. I have to support Australia, both because I live here and because I am pathological about the English... I only wish McGill was playing instead of the f__kwit Warne.

Can't roll a leader when he's high in the polls?

Conventional political wisdom says Brash must survive until the polls turn against National. So too does his former chief of staff, Richard Long, who today said you never change leaders when you're ahead in the polls.

But this only makes sense if you assume that supporters will depart the party in greater numbers than those that might join following a change at the top. Maybe true most of the time, but Brash's leadership has rarely been secure and, this far out from the election, the polls can and will change.

I don't accept the lines coming out of National's various back channels, it's not conventional wisdom saving Brash, it's the inability of caucus to agree a successor. Long must know this in which case he's either trying to buy the National caucus some time or he's trying to encourage Brash to leave before he's inevitably pushed.

Icebergs in NZ, hades in Sydney

I'd have paid a considerable sum of money to be somehow transported out of Sydney last night and relocated onto or near this damn iceberg - 35 degrees+ for most of the yesterday and too freak'n hot to sleep over night.

It's mild 38 degrees today.

C is for cookie

The little one is very keen on being sung too. The Wiggles have been her favourites for a while now however they've recently been displaced by various Sesame St songs (gotta love Youtube). C is for cookie is number one at present but the Manamana song is on a rapid ascent. Yellow submarine is another crowd pleaser - fortunately for me, I think Ringo only sings two or three notes so I can manage a reasoanbly faithful rendition.

... I don't own Revolver... should I have admitted to that?

The half life of kool kredits

Halfpie's been doing all the right things with his daughters. He comments that any kool kredits that accrue however, must be spent within the weekend or else they'll evaporate. A 48 hour half life.

I reckon the half life of kool kredits is age-related, I only hope it extends rather than contracts with each birthday. In my experience, the younger they are, the more transient moods appear - on the up side, any major disappointment can dissipate with 30 mins of the Wiggles but on the downside, 6 hours of energetic playing is no insurance against a moody bedtime!

Get over it Murray

I've never been on the inside of National and so have never understood Murray McCully's influence; frankly, he's always seemed pedestrian to me. This latest outbust hardly convinces me otherwise.

Is Murray keen to align himself with the Monarchists? Why, 'cause National needs more support from rural NZ and old aged pensioners? Perhaps, giving him some credit, he's decided that William's likely to take the throne soon thereby newing the Crown and making it sexy with young women?

National might have some legitimate grievances with the music industry, they appear to have few if any vocal artistic supporters, but I can't see how bagging Dave Dobbyn, who quite frankly would have to be one of the most popular muso's in NZ, is going to help.

National clearly needs to renew the front bench 'cause Murray sounds like the 'narky old man nextdoor, hardly the image that'll attract votes in the major urban centres.

Why we may well win the Cup

The All Blacks win over the French on the weekend was one of the most complete games I've seen in years.

Jerry Collins was magnificent as were the other Wellingtonians, So'oialo, Weepu, and Smith (who may have nailed the Centre spot). Jerry's quoted in today's SMH on keeping the French scoreless:

"It's like when you're little, 'last try wins in some cases'. It's a good way to leave Lyon, with a massive defensive effort".

That attitude is what will win us the Cup.

Tax incentives: training

Australia's tax system is considerably more complex than NZ, not least of all because of the various deductions available. Earlier in the week, the Australian Financial Review (offline or subcriber only) covered a story suggesting a new deduction, this time for expenditure on accredited training for both employers and individuals.

Some State's favour this approach because it means they don't have to contribute more funding - in NSW, the bill for training 80 percent plus covered by the State, around $1.3 billion, compared with $300 million from the Commonwealth. However this proposal is not without risks, particularly the risk that the tax incentive won't increase training in proportion to its cost - deadweight risk. Also, it may not increase training as much as is required - some NSW experts claim a 2.5 percent per annum increase is needed others, focused on the broader national scenario, say 5 percent.

There are other alternatives, obviously governments could increase funding - in some States this is likely but in others it is not. Income contingent loans are another alternative although politically and practically this is less likely - unless all States' and the Commonwealth agree, any debt/loan scheme is damn near impossible since repayments are best made through the Pay as You Go tax system which is a Commonwealth system.

Whatever the solution, there is a general consensus that training participation rates have to go up to improve workforce participation and prepare for the impact of the aging population.

All sides claim victory - almost

The newly established Fair Pay Commission has made its first determination (reasons for the decisions are here), agreeing to increase minimum wages by around $27 a week. This decision has been curiously welcomed by most parties, unions and the Federal Government particularly, albeit for different reasons.

The ACTU are happy because they'd asked for $30 per week and nearly got there. The Feds are happy because they can claim that their new system is working when its critics, including the ACTU, said it wouldn't.

Employers - well Peter Hendy of ACCI predicts the sky will fall in: pressure on inflation and interest rates and no increase in labour market participation (a more orthodox interpretation is impossible). Heather Ridout of the AiGroup is, as ever, far more sensible however she too notes the risks drawing attention to the likely differential impacts on small to medium enterprises and regional economies. Interestingly, the Commission specifically considered and rejected the option to differentiate the rates for either regions or for industries however, this in part reflects the Commission's mandate to eliminate pay differentials between States over the next three years.

Implementation of Australian VSU

One of the quirks of the current Australian parliament is the power independents and small parties hold in the Senate. Although on paper, Howard has a majority, he's often got some work to do on some bills. Last year, he was forced to do a deal, mainly with the Nats but also with the Dems, to ensure the passage of the VSU legislation including providing funding for student services at regional institutions. How much, oh just a lazy $80M over three years. Sounds a lot but as the NUS point out, the VSU legislation probably costs Students' Associations around $160M per annum. More information on the priorities and process etc is here.

Clearly nothing orginal to say...

Tim at Road to Surfdom points out yet another instance of Bush's idiocy.

O'REILLY: Now Brian Ross of ABC said — reported the CIA water boarded Mohammed. That is dunked him in water, tied him down and then that broke him. Is that true?

BUSH: We don't talk about techniques. And the reason we don't talk about techniques is because we don't want the enemy to be able to adjust. We're in a war.

O'REILLY: Is water boarding torture?

BUSH: I don't want to talk about techniques. And — but I do share the American people that we were within the law. And we don't torture. We — I've said all along to the American people we won't torture, but we need to be in a position where we can interrogate these people.

O'REILLY: But if the public doesn't know what torture is or is not, as defined by the Bush administration, how can the public make a decision on whether your policy is right or wrong?

BUSH: Well, one thing is that you can rest assured we're not going to talk about the techniques we use in a public forum. No matter how hard you try because I don't want the enemy to be able to adjust their tactics if we capture them on the battlefield.

Full interview here.

Tim wonders if Al Qaeda may in fact be investigating recruiting amphibian terrorist... no wonder George is worried.

Bravia

Look, I'll admit what is increasingly obvious, anything cool, anything at all cool, I only know about 'cause of browncardigan... It makes me feel so hollow.

New bravia advert here, better than the bouncy-balls in SF, no shit.

Breathing earth

Here's a link to a flash animation tracking births, deaths and CO2 emmissions; China, India and the US head the competition for emmissions. Australia and NZ hardly register, although Australia in fact has the highest emmissions per head of population but is fortunate that slowing land clearances provides carbon sinks.

Hattip: browncardigan (again again).

Album cover wars

Hell I'm not sure which album cover won this particular war, but Ozzy Osboune seemed to do well, eating Weezer and the B52s before consuming his own head - excellent.

Hattip: browncardigan (again).

Improving workforce participation

A while back I took issue with Lindsay Mitchell who suggested that beneficiaries were taking it easy and avoiding work at a time when there were jobs all over the place. As evidence for her argument, she reviewed her local paper and reported that there was 100+ job ads. Mitchell's solution was to reduce the minimum wage and benefits to stimulate employment and force beneficiaries into the workforce.

There's a simple logic to Mitchell's approach, particularly if you believe beneficiaries are a lazy bunch, however her argument is in fact quite wrong. A tight labour market may actually present fewer opportunities to beneficiaries, particularly when the vacancies are for skilled labour.

There's a well researched direct correlation between skills and workforce participation and earnings. In Australia, 80% of men with degrees are in fulltime work compared with only 54% of men with no post school qualifications (reference here). Likewise, compared with those who do not complete school, a person with a Certificate III or IV earns 13% more and someone with a degree earns 43% more (reference here). However the beneficiary cohort tends to have lower skills compared with the workforce and therefore cannot easily obtain work. This problem is likely to get worse - most forecasters predict an increase in the demand for skilled workers and, at best, static demand for unskilled. The solution therefore, involves training (amongst other things, simply increasing and improving the supply of skilled labour does not automatically improve productivity, there also needs to be a focus on increasing the demand for and use of skilled labour).

In NSW, very serious consideration is being given to significantly increasing training over the next 25 years to offset the effects of the aging population and avoid declining productivity. Importantly, the focus of training is not simply on school leavers, but also on existing workers, parttime workers and those who are not in the labour force - this last group are expensive to train.

Some of the commentators on the right also propose reducing minimum wages to stimulate demand for employment but a recent report predicts that this will have less impact than alternative approaches. In Australia, a reduction in minimum wages of 5% will likely lead to around 30,000 people joining the workforce but will also lead to a pay cut for around 1.25 million workers.

Mitchell is like too many commentators, on both the right and the left, who appear pursuaded by rhetorical solutions and unwilling, or unable, to give more serious consideration to what is a complex problem requiring a sophisticated solution.

Live blogging of sorts

I should be working, I've set my screen up so that I can work and watch the Netball test... sod it, I want to have a go at live blogging.

Anthems: How come Netball crowds can belt out both the Maori and English versions of the anthem and rugby crowds are so muted throughout the Maori - are women more likely to be bilingual?

Lineups: No surprises that Liz Ellis is playing on Van Dyk. Both are classy players. Von Bertoch sisters both starting for Australia. Vilimaina Davu is such an imposing character.

Halfway through first quarter: Tutaia is the main target in the NZ shooting circle, shooting 5 from 8 but Van Dyk remains the main defensive target. NZ 100 percent success shooting.

First quarter finished: The difference between the two teams is the conversion rate of shots to goals. The defence on Sharelle McMahon is excellent and the pressure on the shooters is forcing errors. NZ up by two goals.

Halftime: Even, twenty a piece. Scarlett and Davu not doing as well containing the Australian shooters in the second quarter. A typically close match. A wonderfully physical encounter but also well refereed. Avellino commenting for ABC - she used to annoy the hell out of me, always complaining to the umpires but just as aggresive as anyone on court. I don't mind it when competitors push the limits, it is the umpires job to manage, but I don't like players who simultaneously complain and offend. I've hardly ever seen Davu say anything during the game, she accepts that she'll get penalised. Of all the players in all sports, Ricky Ponting must be the worst at this. A brilliant batsman, but an average sportsperson.

3rd Quarter: Dalton on for Tutaia - Dalton who's back in the squad after a year or two away - Dalton who's only a year younger than me and 16 years older than Tutaia. Australia with a break of two goals, 26 plays 24.

NZ timeout in the 3rd Quarter: Australia ahead by 5, shooting much more accurate and midcourt patient. NZ using the zone defence but Australia not panicing.

Late in 3rd Quarter. Davu pulls off critical turnover and NZ not out of things with a centre pass to come.

End of 3rd Quarter. NZ trails 33 - 35. Australia has won the last two quarters but NZ staying with them. Davu's played well but Australia's speed across the top of the circle is the difference. So much for my prediction of a win to NZ by 5, this one will go down to the final seconds and will probably be won by a margin of one or two. Defence on Van Dyk is excellent but isn't creating space for Dalton where it was for Tutaia.

Five to go: Dalton's missed two critical shots, Australia has momentum and the scoring advantage. If they win, it's the first series win in in NZ a number of years...

Fulltime: NZ lose by 6. Ruth Aiken's job is at least safe from me. Australia deserved the win. Third in four games. World Championship's will be tight.

ABC does the right thing

ABC have decided to screen the final Netball test between NZ and Australia live at 4.30pm rather than delayed at 11.30pm. I've been astounded that these tests aren't always live - I've not got time to verify the numbers, but I recall reading that Netball is the most widely played sport by women in Australia and yet the tests don't routinely screen live. The fact that Netball tests are always live on television in NZ may say something about limited participation in other codes, however I think it also says something about the prevalence of sexism in Australia. Hockey screens live, why not Netball? Australia is one of the leading countries in both games - what gives? ABC have done the right thing, I only hope they continue to.

TVNZ meantime are streaming it live.

My tip: Kiwis to win by 5 and take out the series. Watch for Temepara George to again dominate the midcourt.

Sopranos timeslot moved

There's a little story in today's SMH about the latest season of the Sopranos. The very last sentence of the article reads: "It's a shame Nine has shifted the show to this terrible timeslot, but I suppose we should be grateful it wasn't axed altogether."

I'm guessing that it was poor editing that meant the article didn't mention that Nine are not in fact showing the Sopranos at the usual shitty timeslot, Wednesday's at 11.30pm, but instead at the even shitty timeslot of midnight Monday! Bastards!

When I rang Nine to check why the Sopranos wasn't on tonight, I was told that due to "poor audience interest", the show was moving... nicely on message but what bollocks. The show would be a hell of a lot more popular if it weren't for the crap timing - I realise it needs to be screened after kiddies are in bed but midnight sucks arse!

Tough being a parent

I regularly read the blog of Heather Armstrong, Dooce, me and 3,599 others at least. Heather's writing is absorbing, not least of all because it often deals with the challenges of being a parent - challenges I'm acutely aware of. This link takes you to Heather's monthly letter to her daughter, Leta, letter 32. Leta, who is gorgeous, bright and creative, is a lucky girl to have a mother such as Heather.

Every parent must have moments where they wonder about how they're coping and about how their children might be affected when things are a struggle as they are from time to time - God knows I do - I'm going to make sure my wife knows how much I admire her, how much I love her and how grateful I am.

Tribute to loss

An unimaginable loss.

Commonwealth fesses up...

It was not surprising to see another story in today's, Wed 4 October's, press about training and migration. This story at least is based on some more credible information and clearly a more sensible journalist (editor?) has at least found time to link it to Commonwealth policies.

I find the Australian Industry Group's estimate of a 240,000 shortage of skilled workers over the next decade a bit challenging although the NSW training system turns out about this many graduates per annum, close to a third of the national effort, so this figure is not unreasonable.

Training goes offshore too!

Though it hardly deserves the front page, in the news Tuesday morning is a story about TAFE NSW training Chinese nationals offshore - worse still, training them in trades which could lead to domestic jobs going offshore (like Qantas jobs for instance).

The story is frankly thin, full of unsourced quotes from unranked "officials", it is also hardly news. Australian training providers have been very active offshore, universities and TAFE, for ages. Their activities are partly driven by Commonwealth funding policy - policies that have explicitly encouraged training providers to diversify and to develop export education markets to raise commercial revenue and reduce reliance on public funds.

More recently, the Council of Australian Governments explicitly agreed to increase offshore training in order to increase and improve skilled migration into Australia. Specifically, Education and Training Ministers agreed to establish:

"A single, pre-migration, off-shore assessment process to meet skilled migration and licensing purposes and be accepted for licensed employment throughout Australia for intending migrants from any country where there are >100 applications per year per assessing body"

Therefore how can anyone be surprised by this? How on earth can the NSW Minister for Industrial Relations, John Della Bosca, be surprised - did he miss the debrief?

"We are now seeing entire workforces imported into Australia working for less than Australian rates of pay and conditions."

Yeah, bit of an overstatement, but then I guess we're only months out from an election a God knows the unions run the public sector, however seriously Minister, your Premier and Cabinet signed off on the COAG resolution!

Corporate espionage

I've always assumed that there's a degree of espionage that occurs in political campaigning; by both the left and right. I assume that the bigger the stakes, the more likely but also the more sophisticated and, possibly, defensible (maybe I mean defended rather than defensible, defended rather than denied?). So, at the risk of becoming a Four Corners junky/flunky/groupie, they've done it again... producing a compelling hour of television during which AMCOR subversives (I don't think the word is misused in this instance) confess to all manner of under-handed tactics in order to maintain their business chipping native forests.

A transcript of the full show will no doubt be posted - I hope Kakariki saw it in Melbourne.

IT, globalisation and immigration

Qantas have announced they'll be sending 300 jobs offshore to India. Their rational is about the limited availability of skilled workers but I'm not at all convinced.

The federal Department of Work and Employment closely tracks* the IT labour market - it is an incredibly volatile market because the industry is so dynamic and globalised - and as at September 2006 reports that though demand has increased this year, it is still considerably lower than in 2000 reflecting changes in the industry as well as the impact of various measures developed to improve the skill base. Also, although forecasts predict stronger growth in demand for IT employment, changes to the skilled migration scheme and a renewed focus on training for skill shortages may be sufficient to fill any gap.

As an aside, some work I did a while ago showed that the NSW training system is incredibly attuned to changes in the IT industry with enrolments closely tracking vacancy trends with very little lag time.

Qantas is relocating these jobs to save on wage costs - exploiting the low wage economy of India compared with the high wages paid in Australia. This is the price of global labour markets, we need to accept it and plan accordingly.

*DEWR tracks skilled vacancies and reports on trends. It's important not to conflate the existence of persistent vacancies with skill shortages. Skilled workers may choose to not apply for work because they can get more money elsewhere or because they don't like the work. Nursing is an example of an industry where there is a labour, not a skill shortage. There are plenty of trained nurses, more than enough to fill reported vacancies, however they choose alternative employment for numerous reasons (see the report Stop Telling Us To Cope on this page).

I am my own wife: review

Since the youngest was born, we've not often been out to theatre despite having frequent access to free tickets. Last night, we went to I am my own wife at the Sydney Opera House. The play is based on the life of Charlotte von Malsdorf who established the Gruenderzeit Museum in East Belin and survived both WWII and life under the Stasi despite being openly a transvestite.

It is a one (wo)man show and is outstanding. The actor, Jefferson Mays, play 8 - 10 characters with remarkable clarity and distinctivness. The set is a brilliant design that transforms from the interior of a small suburban home into a vast chamber overflowing with grandfather clocks, phonographs, and antique furniture. The script is tight despite the complexity of the story and elegantly shifts from Charlotte's present to her time in both Nazi and Stasi controlled Germany. I particularly like that the script didn't solve the ambiguity about Charlotte's involvement with the Stasi, which included being an infomer (apparently 1 in 3 East Beliners were) and allegations that she informed on another collector (and possible lover) leading to his imprisonment.

This play genuinely deserved the standing ovation it received last night and apparently many others.

Though they focus on very different people and stories, this play reminded me of the Gary Henderson's Skin Tight which we saw in Wellington in 96 or 97.

Disappearing military blog

I recently stumbled across the blog of an Australian, Ben Dullroy, serving with the ADF in Iraq which, though I only read a few posts, was pretty interesting reading. I subscribed to the rss feed but didn't check back for a while. On noticing a new post, I was disappointed to discover that the new post simply announced that the blog had been deleted.

The story appears to be that Dullroy was advised against continuing his blog as the ADF had no policy governing military blogs (this being gleaned from another blogger, Mike Fitz, who re-registered the blog name to avoid squatters).

I guess, at one level, this is a pretty extreme form of censorship however, I avoid blogging on issues related to my work because, as a public servant, I realise I have access to information that the public don't (some of which is sensitive and not within my discretion to disclose). I guess Dullroy's blog has the potential to compromise military or civilian safety or could provide a clue about the ADF's strategy. This being the case, the ADF need to update their policies to reflect the potential for near immediate and uncensored publishing... but does this mean no room for personal military blogs? As Mike Fitz notes, consider "how letters from Gallipoli are revered by today’s historians."

Interestingly, comments on the (in)actions of the ADF are mixed with at least one commentator, Colleague in Army, criticising Dullroy's actions stating "You should have known better. It took you four years to get a deployment and you did this". Ouch!

I'm ok, the Brethren are too

Unsurprisingly, the most conservative leader in the First World does not have a problem with the Exclusive Brethren. Money laundering, child abuse, institutionalised sexism and technophobia... what the hey, they apparently funnel money into Johnny Howard's campaign so live-and-let-live he says:

"I did make the observation that I've met a lot more fanatical people in my life than the Exclusive Brethren. They have a different, a more disciplined, perhaps some would say a more narrow interpretation of the Christian religion than others, but I respect their right to have it."

Sure they do John, however it's not their beliefs that cause concern, it's their actions not only in terms of how they treat their members and ex-members, but also their shadowy forays into politics - how would Howard react if an Imam surreptitiously produced attack advertising targeting the Liberals? I think we know, he'd reconsier their right to be citizens.

I accepted support from Christians...

Yeah so it was just in student politics, WSU in 1993/4, but I've remembered now it in the context of all the brouhaha about the Exclusive Brethren's covert support for National.

In my defence, I only accepted their support 'cause they couldn't support the other candidates, one whom was quite staunchly left wing and the other who was a bit of a boozer and a lad (both were also damn good friends and remain so today). But I did accepted the support of a Born-Again Christian group in Hamilton.

Now I could say things about them that I didn't like, and they certainly did some things that I didn't agree with but (and this might simply be to make myself feel better) I was straight up with them that I supported several of the projects and groups that they opposed (particularly various initiatives designed to reduce homophobic harassment on campus) and they never asked anything of me, so why decry them now? They were also pretty upfront about what they were trying to do and did talk to all three candidates (I was also the only one that had gone to a Catholic school which could just as easily have counted against me).

Some of the people that supported me in 93/94 went on to do things that I actively opposed and I can't say that I didn't expect as much when I was elected. The stakes are lower in student politics of course, however not in every respect - the prejudice that openly gay students dealt with was real and immediate and couldn't be tolerated. That said, I was lucky to have avoided some of the drama encountered on other campuses - the worst situation I faced was when the student calendar ended up with something like 6 images of penises and a representative of the Church objected in the local newspaper.

Tragedy of Cults: Exclusive Brethren

ABC's Four Corners documentary on the Exclusive Brethren disturbingly chronicled four or five cases of families cleft apart by fear, threats of divine retribution, as well as allegations of alcoholism, infidelity, child abuse and illegal financial activities. The documentary didn't deal much with the recent political activity in NZ, Australia and in Canada and elsewhere.

A number of cases of families in NZ and Australia were examined, all of which cohered to the same pattern of abuse where fear, financing and family were used by church leaders against recalcitrant members to first bring them back into line or, failing that, to permanently exclude them from the church and from access to family within the church.

In one case, a member was excluded and offered the rights to a business as a trade for his two sons whom the church wanted to retain. In another, a mother was counselled against leaving to be with her excluded husband and provided with cash as inducements to stay. In a third, a family that left the church was told that God would punish them by taking one of their children - when their eldest son died in his sleep many years later, the parents struggled with the guilt that perhaps God was vengeful afterall?

The documentary also examined the behaviour of the church leaders, including the leader of the Chuch in the '50s, Jim Taylor who entrenched their isolation by banning members from eating or socialising with anyone who wasn't a member of the church. Allegations against Taylor included infidelity and alcoholism, as well as allegations of tax avoidance. A head of the Australian Church in the '80s, Ron Fawkes, claims that he personally illegally transported "tens and tens and tens of thousands of dollars in cash" to the US for then leader, James Symington, and that the Exclusive Brethren have hundreds of millions of dollars in assets.

A full transcript from the documentary is available here and an online forum can be viewed here.

More training but who should pay?

Today's Australian Financial Review (offline only) covers the argument over who should pay for increased vocational training. What's unusual about the story is that the argument isn't between the Commonwealth and the States, but instead between the three leading national business organisations.

On the one hand the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry argue for income-contingent loans (i.e. individuals should pay more) on the other, the Australian Industry Group, with muted support from the Business Council of Australia, argue that industry, governments, and individuals all need to pony up. As an aside, the Australian Industry Group back up their claim with this excellent research.

Unsurprisingly, I'm in the latter camp although I think it is increasingly difficult for TAFE to argue against fees while at the same time providing more and more higher level qualifications.

It is now a near universal consensus that more training is vital to support continued economic growth (this is a variation on the 2002 federal Treasury's Intergenerational Report), however it is good to see some of the more ludicrous statements challenged in the media.

Poll result sets up difficult times for both parties

The latest poll will certainly please Don Brash but is it good news for National? Hard to argue it isn't, but it does make life difficult for any aspiring alternative leaders.

Brash's leadership remains a live issue, not least of all because he keeps making it one, and therefore every other utterance from senior Nat's will be assessed as for or against a leadership spill. In this light, Rich and Brownlee's comments regarding the Exclusive Brethren are a conscious attempt to distance themselves from Brash (and secure their position post a change). Key's equivocation and English's low profile also suggest continued planning.

But, Brash has just delivered the best poll position the Nat's could hope for - can the National caucus move against a leader who is up in the polls? It'd be a change - Bolger, Shipley, and English were all casualities of consistently bad polls.

I think they can and should move against Brash and do so now. Replacing him now enables them to blame the "dirt" rather than his numerous self inflicted wounds. Replacing him now gives any new team just 8 weeks of Parliamentary, during which they'll enjoy some media honeymoon, followed by the Christmas break. Replacing him now gives the new team long enough to develop their own brand and position before the election.

On the downside however, which leadership team has the talent to lead National for the next two years?

Citizenship test updated White Australia policy

Ok, it's not, not really, but it is a move in that direction, a bit of dog whistle politics designed to appeal to the latent racism of the Australian electorate. You'd expect Labor to challenge the move, and they are, but rather than question the merit or motive of the test, Labor are focused on the timing.

Beazley's line is that it's too late, you know, that it should be administered earlier - perhaps in the foreign departure lounge before they board whatever boat, plane, floation aide they're planning to travel on.

"Why wait until somebody applies for citizenship before making them commit to live as part of our society? I don't see the sense in waiting three years to demand a fair go"

Beazley's not the Opposition, he's simply another pretender to the crown; no less unctuous that Costello, Abbott or Downer.

The other thing that makes me think of the White Australia policy is the coincidence of the citizenship test with the suggestion that frequent flyers ought not be subjected to the same scrutiny as everyone else - not content with the Qantas Lounge, corporate cabs and late boarding, now the business traveller wants to avoid the embarrasment of having your privates check for incendiary devices. This isn't racial profiling, it's the reverse, income preferencing.

The other thing about this that annoys me is that all of this debate is going on at precisely the same time that Howard is easing the process by which skilled workers can come and work in Australia. His rhetoric is almost entirely inconsistent with his actions, not for no good reason either, Howard knows that, particularly in the trades and in manufacturing, there's no more South Africans left in the Republic and Australia will have to source new labour from Asian nations (or worse, NZ).

Ahh sod it, thank god the Soprano's is back on tv, pity it's so damn late - 10.40pm.

Brash's leadership at risk

I've blogged plenty on my reservations about Brash's leadership of the National party. I think he's frankly inept and accident prone. I didn't like his election strategy and particularly his comments that Labour supporters weren't "mainstream" New Zealanders - the first time I've noted a kiwi variation on the "unAustralian' epithet common on this side of the Tasman.

That said, politics is a cruel profession and news that is marriage is under threat is just sad. Debate over at kiwiblog, under the horribly ironic heading of Corruption and Morality, is predictably about who is to blame (predictably might be too strong given that I think David had hoped the thread would stay focused on the pledge card). Labour, for seeding the story? NZFirst, for having copies of leaked emails that allegedly contain references to Brash's alleged infidelity? The mole in National for leaking the emails in the first place? Or Brash himself?

I almost don't care. I almost dispair actually. I think an MP's private life should generally be off limits but I suspect this will only get worse before it gets better. Muldoon's treatment of Colin Moyle is probably the high tide mark but Judith Collins allegations against David Benson-Pope were outrageous and cowardly. I also think Brash's comments about Clark's marriage were pathetic. My team are, of course, not innocent - I think the occassional comments about Nick Smith's mental health are gratuitous to say nothing about this current situation.... however that it now seems likely that Brash will be forced out by his own colleagues is almost Shakespearian in its comic tragedy.

World Bank ranks the NZ economy second most business friendly

Well, I've no idea how the right wing blogosphere in NZ will try to discredit it, but NZ has again received a very high ranking as a great place to do business.

The World Bank report, summary here, awards NZ second place overall (last year NZ was first, this time Singapore is) compared with 175 other nations and measured against 10 criteria. NZ achieves the top mark for the registering property and protecting investors criteria and has improved its ranking for paying taxes, enforcing contracts and starting a business. NZ has however, gone down in rankings against licences, employing workers and closing a business.

I'm picking the right will ignore that NZ has ranked in the top two for two years running and will instead decry the negative indicators.

Blair really is going... soon

There will be many, on the left and right, who'll be happy to see Blair depart Number 10; I don't share their sense of schadenfreude.

I distinctly remember Blair's 1997 election, it appeared to me as ever increasing towers of red eclipsing a computer generated map of the UK as New Labour swept the decaying Conservatives out of office. At the time, I was working in the NZ Labour Party Research Unit and we were hoping that just as the Conservatives seemed to have dissembled out of office, so too would National in the coming election (they did).

Blair is now political history. The BBC includes authorised comments from Number 10 confirming that he will soon announce his departure date, suggested to be May 2007, leaving the way for Brown to take the reigns (that is if he too isn't fatally tainted by this shambolic situation) with two years left before the next election.

What it will mean is difficult to assess. In NZ, Clark will need to reassure the public that her ally's demise in no way foretells her own. The Nat's will enjoy talking up the prospect that the New Labour movement is coming to an end. Odd really, given that British Labour ain't so far from where, I imagine, many within National would like to be positioned; economically othodox, socially liberal, internationally active. What it'll mean for Bush and the so-called Coalition on the Willing is far more important. As commentators over at roadtosurfdom suggest, with Aznar and Berlusconi gone, will the Shrub be the last surviving member?

The end of an era? Turning of the tide? Hard to know. I'm hopeful that progressive labour-friendly policies remain ascendent in the UK and NZ (they most certainly are not in Australia). I guess comparisons could be made with the Thatcher/Reagan era but they're weak and premature - Blair and Bush's alliance doesn't stretch beyond Iraq and their domestic policies have little in common.

I'm sorry Blair's going, I admire his ability and respect his achievements. I'm entirely unconvinced of the merits of the war in Iraq and wonder if he had his time again, would he still be so supportive of Bush?

Strip show leads to global warming

God awful headline I know but I just couldn't resist it.

The SMH carries a story about strippers being the after dinner entertainment at the Australia New Zealand Climate Change Forum in Canberra. I wonder if Generation XY will run a competition for the best gag? Anyone know if Merepeka Raukawa-Tait was there?

Watching, listening, reading

I've noticed a fewer bloggers regularly report on things they're reading or watching and so on. I guess I've tended to just talk about the issues I'm interested in rather than what I'm doing but I've found it quite interesting to learn what others, who's writing I enjoy, are reading or listening to. So in this spirit.

Watching: we recently finished watching the first series of Love My Way. Outstanding television drama with excellent acting and compelling story lines. I'll not spoil it by talking about the plot but I will we cried intensely during the last few episodes. I genuinely don't think I've cried that much in years.

Reading: Cocaine: An Unathorized Biography by Dominic Streatfeild. I have read a lot of books about drug culture, including Marching Powder by Rusty Young which I thoroughly enjoyed and strongly recommend, this is a bit different. Its biographical in so far as it examines Cocaine's pharmacology, its history, its economy and, of course, its use. Streatfeild's writing is also very good.

Listening: Modern Times by Bob Dylan. Still unbelievably good despite being in his 60s. This album reminds me of Paolo Conte, JJ Cale and Tom Petty. I'll not speculate as to who has influenced who.

Bush assassinated: documentary

Those Brits sure now how to get a laugh. Apparently, More4, a digital channel in the UK is going to screen a mock documentary that deals with the fictional assassination of President Bush. According to the Guardian:

The drama takes the form of a fictional documentary looking back at the assassination of Mr Bush in October 2007, after he has delivered a speech to business leaders in Chicago. When Mr Bush arrives in the city he is confronted by a massive demonstration against the Iraq war and is gunned down by a sniper as he leaves the venue. The hunt for Mr Bush's killer focuses on a Syrian-born man, Jamal Abu Zikri.

Hat tip: browncardigan

Can I please be a stay at home Dad

It's Fathers' Day soon, my youngest won't care, she's unconvinced by the Gregorian Calendar let alone its Hallmark variations. I'll be at home as it's Sunday and I'm strictly Monday through Friday - actually, I don't work on Friday, I have the youngest at home (one of the very few saving graces of the public service).

I'd like to be home everyday, I'd like to be a fulltime stay at home day however there's a few things stopping me not least of all youngest's enjoyment of childcare. Money's another, career too.

Still, on Fathers' Day I'm going to pretend that I'm a stay at home Dad; I'll do the dishes, hang out the washing from the night before and fold the washing that's dry, I'll cook some stuff that can be frozen and quickly reheated for children's dinners, I'll shop for various things not available through the online grocer, I'll hang out, fold, wash and hang out again... obviously I'll sing a few dozen of the Wiggles greatest hits along the way... but most of all, most of all I'll play with youngest, we'll go to the park, ride the slippery dip, consume sand, drench ourselves in the misfiring bubbler, lose a shoe and have a ball.

Would I really do this every day, instead of whateverthefuckitisIreallydo; you betcha!

Select Committe explores expanding CER

Labour's Dianne Yates is chairing a Select Committee considering widening the CER arrangement with Australia. Anyone who's read Templeton's All Honourable Men will know the interesting history of CER including the fact that Muldoon was entirely unconvinced for a number of years before finally agreeing to sign up. I only hope Yates takes the advice of her officials, is well supported by other members of the Committee and receives informed submissions.

Tracey Nelson: Rugby's answer to Robert Fisk

There are many sports journalists I regularly read and whose expertise I admire. Tracey Nelson, of the haka website, is near the top of the pack because unlike most others, her commentary is grounded on a thorough and complete empirical analysis of the game. Her latest online analysis, of the last Bledisloe, is here and I hope she's going to post an analysis of the more recent game against the Boks (Tracey if you stumble across this humble blog, please include the stats on the kicks in game)

Note the penalty count for the game, Australia incurred 16 (5 of which resulted in advantage to the All Blacks including one advantage that lead to a try) compared with 4 incurred by the All Blacks. I guess that reinforces Helen Clark's view from the stand?

Nelson's view, which you'll struggle to argue with based on her analysis, is that although the Wallabies were playing outside the laws of the game, all three match referees have to take the blame for not control of the game in the first place.

Congestion II: The Chuggers

It's pretty much a safe bet nowadays that any lunchtime stroll around downtown Sydney will involve dozens of chuggers extolling you to donate to their cause du jour. I have no problem with charity and regularly contribute to several, however I do object to every other English backpacker subsidising their pill popping, partying and Bondi beach bonk-fest with a cut from my donations.

I accept that the time of the charity volunteer is largely over, and that professionals now generate more funding for charities but still, can't I eat my barely warm rushed lunch without having to deal with another young Londoner with third degree sun burn asking me to sign on for planned giving?

Interestingly, I watched young school kids today raising money for Legacy week - I wonder if they'll part fund their UK OE by harassing uptight bankers in the City? Could chugging now be a career option/accoutrement?

Congestion

Everything has been hectic this month, not least of all work, and this has crowded out any time I might have had to blog.

Speaking of work, although this blog is entirely a personal distraction, I recently attempted to make use of blogs professionally. I was interested to see if blog commentary differed greatly from the MSM take on a project I've been managing. Two blogs, johnquiggan.com and clubtroppo.com.au, picked up on the story (which got good MSM coverage) and although the discussion is limited, it is very helpful becuase it is (a) more technically focused and (b) it is consistent with some internal feedback. I think blogs will be an increasingly useful and effective channel for public policy debate and formation in the very short term (although I don't think many government agencies will rush to use them as they are far less easily manipulated).

I'll blog some more on the project and report later.

On less pointy-headed issues, the family have decided to travel to France with friends to see a some of the 2007 Rugby World Cup. We've not bothered to try to see the All Blacks and have instead decided to purchase tickets to games in cities we want to visit and so we're off to the South of France (Montpellier for the games). I'm really pleased that one of the games we've got tickets for is Manu Samoa vs a qualifier.

Great to see the All Blacks win the Tri Nations and the Bledisloe. I've enjoyed all the games so far including the win against Australia in Auckland. I was particularly moved by the genuine affection and respect the crowd displayed on the occassion of the death of Te Arikinui and was particularly pleased by McCaw's comments on behalf of the team.

Clark's comments on the Tuqiri's tackle got lots of media attention here. Bottom line, Tuqiri's tackle was very very poor, not malicious in my opinion, but very poorly executed and deserving of the suspension. Phil Waugh on the other hand, his play on McCaw was clearly intended to injure and he is damn lucky to have avoided being punished.

Still on rugby, Sydney will not host a Bledisloe again next year which might have annoyed me but for the prospect of seeing them play at the MCG.

Howard withdraws migration Bill

Howard's no fool. Rather than suffer the sight of Liberal Senator's crossing the floor to defeat him, he's decided to pull the controversial migration Bill.

It is good to see a healthy democracy functioning well; remember this is the first time this government has had control of both Houses.

Lange's memorial service

I'm surprised a year has passed since David Lange died. It doesn't seem that long. Reading news of his rapidily deteriorating health was very hard and his death felt like that of a family member's. I'd have like to have been at today's memorial service.

I grew up in and around David's electorate, lived there until 1996 or 97. My late grandfather stood against him as a candidate for 1977 Mangere by-election. I also met David a number of times.

On one occassion I met David, around 1993/94, he and my grandfather were at odds about local government politics. My grandfather was in fact threatening to sue David for comments he'd made about my grandfather's eligibility for the Manukau City Council. I was about to graduate from Law school and for just one moment, I wondered whether I should make the obvious joke about potentially representing my grandfather... I didn't; one dispute in the family seemed more than enough.

Howard's migration Bill in trouble

Steve Fielding, the Family First Senator has said he'll vote against the Howard government's Bill to allow migrants to be processed offshore. Fielding has previously said he'd wait and listen to the debates in both Houses, however in an interview with Nine Network today, Fielding has said he'll vote against the Bill.

Fielding says:

"What I don't understand is, here we are in Australia saying let's be fair and reasonable but we're not prepared to play by the rules. That's not on. I don't understand where you can have a situation where all of a sudden Australia would say that we're not going to play by the rules. That's not Australian. It's not fair."

With Barnaby Joyce saying his support requires amendments to the Bill, Howard's in a precarious position with a majority of just one and expectation that some Liberal Senators may abstain or vote against the Bill.

Road to Surfdom has a very useful overview of the issues, positions and possible outcomes here.