More taxes than wombats

... so says Ken Henry, federal Treasury Secretary.

In today Australian Financial Review, offline, Henry notes that there's 125 different taxes, more than the paltry number of protected northern hairy-nosed wombats, 115.

Too often NZ commentators elide over the complexities of federalism in preference for trite statements claiming Australian's have higher wages (true at least at the upper-end, but probably not in the middle) and lower taxes (next to impossible to know).

Typically, these commentaries focus only on direct income taxes to make out the advantages of working in Australia compared with New Zealand. This obscures, however, the myriad of taxes that occur outside of your pay-packet (as well as some, such as compulsory superannuation and the income-contingent health levy, that are additional to Pay As You Go). For instance, stamp duties and land taxes are major contributors to states' revenue and a significant impost on individuals in addition to income tax.

Henry observes:

An excessive level of complexity wastes resources. It diverts resources from
more valuable uses; many high-achieving tax agents could be school teachers.

The fact is that the Australian tax system is incomparably more complex than New Zealand's. Consider for instance that most salary and wage earners in New Zealand need not even file a tax return, no such exemption exists in Australia (most people have tax agents to do the work for them). Add to this the inummerable GST exemptions and it's impossible to know just how much tax any one individual pays. Makes you wonder about the $6.2 billion bailout to the car industry.

Disapprovalists

I first remember Rosemary McLeod from my youth. She was a cartoonist and columnist for the Listener. My mother, a nascent femisist, also had a book of her collected writings. She was clearly a significant thinker, commentor and agitator for women's rights. She seemed to be able to address serious matters frankly and with humour.

Later, McLeod became a more angry voice, primarily for the Dominion. In my student politics days, she wrote a very critical piece on comments I'd made about marriages of convenience. Shortland St stars Nick and Rachel entered a marriage of convenience to obtain student allowances and I'd commented that these marriages (they did in fact exist) were "a rational response to an irrational situation". McLeod was incensed. I was selfish, naive, a thief etc etc etc. It was a slightly unhinged response.

Today McLeod gives us her judgment on Helen Clark. There's some direct praise, but it is overshadowed by comments about her marriage, her dress-sense, her academic career and her failure to have kids. It's a good piece of writing however, because it almost obscures McLeod's envy. Clark, unlike McLeod, was in the game, not sitting on the sidelines barking disapproval.

This has been what I've realised about McLeod. She disapproves. Disapproves of sexism, of course, but disapproves also of a woman who's succeeded in politics. Rather than celebrating the achievements of Clark's government, McLeod concentrates her attention on developing a catalogue of her disapprovals. This list includes a disapproval of the newly elected Member for Wellington Central because he's gay and had the audacity to pinch his partner's backside. Grant Robertson's is at the beginning of what will certainly be a successful and influential career. He'll face far sterner criticism that McLeod's. I doubt for a minute he'll be distracted by her latest gripe.

I tell my youngest to be wary of the disapprovalists. The usually insecure, rigid thinkers who need everyone to follow simple stereotypes to make themselves feel good. Fortunately for now, they are kids who are seduced by appeal of conformity, but McLeod proves they can and do grow into adults.

Contact details

I've corrected my contact email address - thanks to the person who pointed out that it was incorrect.

Goff assumes the leadership

I've not had a lot to do with Phil Goff though I've long admired him as a political operator. He was opposition justice spokesman when I was at the Ministry of Justice; he caused us a lot of grief. He was consistent and focused. Our Minister, the sauve and confident Doug Graham, was wary; Goff clearly had both a strategy and the ability to effectively implement it.

Earlier still Goff was the target of my frustration at the prospect of paying what now seem entirely reasonable student fees. That said, as soon as I saw Phil up close, I developed a respect for his thoroughness, his focus, his passion and his damn good humour.

When Goff was moved back to Justice and Corrections a year or so back, I thought it was a good move; a move designed to neuter Power. Combined with King's move to Police, I hoped it would stiffle the inevitable law and order beat-up. Initially it did. In fact, even as Parliament drew to a close, Goff was easily dismissing Power's attempts to paint the government as weak. They're not. Phil Goff has run law and order throughout Labour's three terms in government. As others have frequently pointed out, the rate of offending has not skyrocketed, escapees are not swanning about the local shops and Police numbers have expanded. Still, the ravings of the Sensible Sentencing Trust have seen the revival of the crazy policies like ACTs three strikes and your out. Presumably they'd object if the three convictions were against section 59 of the Crimes Act?

QueenBee will have you believe that Goff's ascendency is a repudiation of Clark's leadership and of the left more generally. But this is based on at least two significant (and convenient) misunderstandings. First, it's a misunderstanding of Labour's policy orientation which is significantly broader than the Queen cares to recall. Secondly, it misunderstands the legacy of discipline Labour has embraced since 1996.

It's far more likely that Key should be wary of English than Goff should be wary of any other aspirant. Whereas Key can claim he delivered National government, he will have to prove he's capable of running one. Goff has no such worries.

High expectations

Key's set himself challenging goals. And, having largely got the result he wanted, it's reasonable to expect he'll deliver on them. His colleagues owe him. Unelectable for almost a decade, Key's remade National. They resemble a coherent team. Moderate. Ruling out Douglas ensures he has some wiggle room. In a few days, they'll stitch up a deal with ACT and United, they'll get warrants and announce priorities. Tax cuts, repealing the Electoral Finance Act and "renewing" various Boards appointments.

Labour will quickly select a new leadership team. With 12 (?) new members, many young, and a brief re-examination of focus, Labour will be a strong opposition. Two new members I've known for a while - Grant Robertson and Chris Hipkins - their wins are bitter-sweet.

I will return to Sydney. I would rather stay and support the party as it rebuilds but family and work will not permit it. I'm no less likely to return to NZ than I was. I find the tendency for people to declare they're staying or leaving based on an election result ridiculous. National conscription, that'd make me reconsider my commitment to a country, but not tax rates.

I'm one of the 380k+ who're in Australia. I left under Labour but not for any of the reasons Farrar and his mates bang on about. I left 'cause I wanted a change for a little while and kinda didn't come back. By Key's reckoning then, so long my circumstances keep me in Australia, his goverment is failing. That's no more credible now than it was when Lockwood released National's immigration policy.

I was impressed by Clark's concession speech. Her's is a remarkable legacy. I take her lead in celebrating the last nine years and respecting the electorate's absolute right to determine government. Key deserves his chance to lead, I have my doubts but he's got a clear mandate.

See you 'round.

Hot and hilly

Wellington remains my home. Although I left six years ago, I still feel immediately comfortable on arrival. The weather's fantastic, for the moment. I catch up with lots of friends, we go to fantastic cafes. New shops and galleries have opened. Posters for gigs are everywhere. Skin Tight is on. I saw it years ago. It was brilliant. I'll not see it this time but I'm keen to check out Fur Patrol. Julia Dean's saucy - I last them in Sydney when they opened for Pacifier... yes, then.

Out delivering leaflets for Grant Robertson, I get lost. I thought I knew Dixon St, but I'm confused and looking around Courtney Place. I recover my sense of geography but can't work out how to get into some of the flats. I push buttons and am eventually let in to deliver personalised letters.

The reaction Grant's getting is fantastic. He's the perfect candidate. Smart, connected and genuine. He's young, a new face. People clearly warm to him. I'm not surprised. I've known him for coming on 17 years. I'm happy to be helping him.

Tomorrow Rimutaka. Chris Hipkins is hosting Helen Clark.

Wellington and elections. Two of my favourite things.

The Obamanator

How some see Barack...



is a little different to others...



Hat-tip: browncardigan (I swear we've got different audiences, it's the only reason I shamelessly copy all your stuff).

Robertson 1, Franks 0

I can confidently say that in the only poll that matters, the General Election, Grant Robertson is comfortably ahead of Stephen Franks.

This morning I cast a special vote for Grant and Labour in Sydney. I was the first customer at the temporary polling booth - perhaps I'm the first voter for the Wellington Central electorate, perhaps the first voter in the NZ General Election ...?

A cluster of unions had collected eligible members but it was wet so a number of the construction guys were stuck at work-sites (had it been dry, they'd have been able to turn up during their official "smoko", but as it was wet, if they left they'd miss out on four hours pay - there's an irony in that I'm sure). In fact, as I wandered back to the office, I could easily have been back in Wellington it was that cold.

Media showed up - TVNZ, TV3, ABC, SBS and Reuters. They got some good images of the haka. It was faithfully and respectfully performed following karakia. I stood in the back. I was asked to get in the front and should have but self-conciousness got the better of me.

Fourteen years ago, Grant and I stood against each other for the presidency of NZUSA. He didn't get my vote, I think he understood why. I'm happy to have been, possibly, the first person who voted for him this time.

08Wire predicts another cliff-hanger

Last election I sat glued to my computer constantly mashing the refresh key as the evening swung from a National to a Labour government. I remember hearing Labour's Mike Williams cautioning against panic as he predicted Auckland seats would favour Labour. He was of course proven right. The closest of elections still gave Labour first go at forming a government. One that's lasted despite real awkwardness.

This year I'll at least be in New Zealand - in the Wellington region supporting Grant Robertson and Chris Hipkins (and also keeping a eye on Jils Angus Burney). All are good friends and all will make excellent MPs.

Not being the mathematical whizz 08wire and Steve Pierson are, I'm reliant on others for intelligent commentary on the polls. The thread on the poll of polls is particularly enlightening with Rob Salmond's analysis showing Labour's closing the gap. The comments are all the more encouraging with suggestions that Rob's being conservative by over-weighting older polls which had National in a stronger position.

I know Labour, the Greens and their partners have a job ahead of them but I don't think the election's out of reach. New Zealand's got to navigate difficult times in the near future and increasingly I think the public have questions about Key's capacity to be the kind of consistent and decisive leader needed. Key's mishandling of negotiations with Maori may well have cost him dearly. Come election day, it may only be ACT and United he can rely on and the prospect of Douglas being back in Cabinet will chill many who remember the turmoil of the early '90s.

Last Days of Bush

I wonder what George W's Facebook page looks like?

Hat-tip: browncardigan

Is Key himself a legitimate issue?

Is Key's character an issue for this election? I believe it is.

I think Key's lack of experience and his inconsistency seriously impact his credibility. His flip-flopping is well documented but that alone's not fatal. Instead, it's his shiftiness that troubles me. It's evident in his handling of Francesca Mould's questioning over his Rail shares. If the explanation was as innocent as he claims, why not say so at the earliest possible opportunity?

Christopher Hitchens has written a devastating piece criticising McCain and Palin - particularly Palin - for lacking the essential character to lead. His piece includes this quote:

A candidate may well change his or her position on, say, universal health care or Bosnia. But he or she cannot change the fact—if it happens to be a fact—that he or she is a pathological liar, or a dimwit, or a proud ignoramus. And even in the short run, this must and will tell.

Danyl at the DimPost has noted a increasingly negative tone to the campaign. His view is Labour are wrong to follow this strategy - he may be right but I think Key's character is important to his capacity to be PM.

Future fund loses $780M

Cossie's Future Fund has not faired well of late. Hardly surprising given the environment. The return for 07/08 is a modest 1.5 per cent. That's 3 per cent less that CPI and hugely down on the almost 7.4 per cent in the previous year. This is hard on people who're expecting to retire soon - I wonder what reforecasting is being done to assess the numbers of people who'll defer their retirements?

It's worth remembering that in 2006/7, Costello made one-off changes to the tax system to enable additional contributions of up to $1 million. Here's what he said at the time:

For people who were planning a large payment into superannuation under the current rules and would have become subject to the contribution limits, we are announcing that subject to any applicable work test, they will be able to put $1 million of post-tax contributions into superannuation before the 30th of June 2007.

Costello couldn't have foreseen the global financial meltdown so he can't be held responsible for the fact that these additional contributions may have reduced the net benefits for some (he does tend to have a bob-each-way however as he's also said that he'd told Greenspan that he foresaw problems...). Still his various disingenuous declamations possibly won't help his credibility.

Also note that compared with John Key's plan to have 40 per cent of the NZ fund invested domestically, the Australia Future Fund invests only 9 per cent with close to 20 in global equities. The majority, 35 billion or approximately 60 million is in cash. Note that these figures exclude Telstra holdings which are in escrow. Finally, check out the principles guiding the Board's investment strategy (page 17) which include this statement:

that a higher expected return per unit risk (investment efficiency) can be obtained from a broadly diversified allocation across asset classes.

Given that John's so keen on Australian aspirations, why's he so ignorant of their strategies? Costello's miscalculation disproves his legendary soothsaying abilities, why would you believe Key's are better?

Four day five day Test with a difference

Australia have won so many Tests in four days, I almost missed the significance of today's news: Australia may lose a Test in four days.

Is Hayden's career over? His 29 in the second innings is his higest score in this series. But what about Watson? Good knock in the first innings but 2 in the second. Even Hussey failed... The freebie newspaper handed out to Sydney commuters is calling for the Pup to be handed captaincy! At 9.20pm EST, Australia need 434 runs with five wickets in hand and four sessions left to play.

I'll resist the temptation until NZ have beaten Bangladesh... four session, nine wickets in hand and 174 runs to win.

Actually, I might even hold out until after the two-Test series in November. Two Tests? WTF? Two Tests and only a warm-up game against NSW. Bastards. Assuming they don't play Katich, Lee, Pup or even Haddin. I suspect Stuey Clark, Bracken or Jacques will be well keen to prove a point.

Gratuitous blog-links

Three recent posts have caught my eye. Two, by Chis Trotter and NRT, deal with the prospect of an over-hang and the third is about special education.

Chris wrote this very critical piece concerning the prospect of a Maori-National coalition. Like Chris, I can't see it being sustainable because it appears to be inconsistent with Maori views (at least as they've been expressed in this survey). However, I don't agree with Chris that the prospect of a Maori-National coalition proves the fault of the Maori seats. I agree that Maori seats are somewhat incongruous in our MMP system but I don'think that means they ought not exist.

Though it's often be criticised as being naive, which it is not, the historical development of Maori seats and the link to the Treaty remains a sufficient justification for their existence IMO. The fact that our arrangements don't entirely cohere to an idealised standard doesn't mean they're defunct - certainly not while they work and there's no evidence to suggest they don't. That said, I tend to agree they may not be needed if we continue to see a genuine plurality in Parliament (plus there's a greater consensus around resolution of outstanding Treaty claims) but I'm not sure where there yet.

I'm intrigued by NRT's suggestion of list only MPs as a way of avoiding the distortionary effects of an overhang. My concern would be that there'd be something significant lost by discontinuing electorate MPs. Anyone who's worked in a public sector role will know just how effective and important electorate MPs can be; good electorate MPs earn their wage daily by helping navigate often hopelessly complex bureaucracy.

Finally to Grant Robertson's piece on Special Education. I share Robertson's focus on Special Education. If New Zealand is anything like Australia, then it's almost certain the demand for more and better support for kids with disabilities will increase (plus it's still not adequately funded).

I worked in Parliament in the early days of the National-NZFirst coalition which largely implemented Labour policy on funding for special education. The mix of funding for schools and for pupils seemed the right way to go to provide both mainstream and specialist facilities for an increasingly diverse range of kids. I was aghast to discover that an entirely arbitrary decision was taken to reduce funding available for individual kids - it was never explained and it quickly meant a log-jam of applications and a slowing of funding.

It was obvious to me that the then Associate Minister, the late Brian Donnelly, was being frustrated by his senior colleague, Wyatt Creech, who was simply to bloody mean to properly fund the otherwise good scheme. Forunately Chris Carter's investing the necessaries at last.

Australian Liberal Leader's a Twitter

Malcolm Turnbull proves he's hip-with-the-kids.

NSW by-elections

Four Labor-held State seats are up for by-election tomorrow. The retirements of the Premier, Deputy Premier, Treasurer and Minister for Health will all test electorate reaction to the new Labor-leadership. Rather than offer my opinion - I can't even vote - I'll offer ABC polling expert, Anthony Green's.

Grooves for the weekend

Each week Ben Watt makes his hour-long radio set available online at buzzin'fly radio.

Listen to it.

Watt's buzzin'fly label is quite simply the best around in house/deep-house from the UK and Europe and he DJs regular spots in London. He's also often in Australia. I saw him a year or so back at a club off Oxford St, Sydney - it's possibly the last time I went to a dance gig in fact (over-night babysitters are in short supply).

Watt previously was one half of Everything but the Girl with his wife Tracy Thorn.

I read Watt's book, Patient, recently. It's a pretty frank narrative about his near-death in the late '90s just as ETBG were taking off. The copy I had is signed by Watt himself - a friend was one of his nurses (she was one of the nurses who looked after Rik Mayall too).

As you slide into the weekend I recommend Ben Watt; it's the last thing I do on a Friday evening as I sup a Gin.

Queen Bee's mask slips

QueenBee's wellingtonhive is popular and prolific blog. The mix of politics, trade news and general commentary is interesting although the editorial line is a little didactic (particularly given the claimed independence). But this latest post is simply tawdry .

I posted earlier about the double standard right-wing bloggers seem to have; on the one hand insisting on unregulated markets, unfettered individualism and freedom from the deadening hand of government but, on the other hand, censoring all criticism.

QueenBee's comments rule clearly states:

Keep comments relevant to the post in question. No speculation about anyone's sexuality.

So much for that. I guess it's hard to maintain standards in a group blog?

UPDATE: QB assures me that I've misinterpreted the intent of this piece. I accept her word.

Obama on Free Trade

An hour into the debate, Obama talks about Free Trade - an issue of importance to NZ which is well positioned to do a multi-lateral trade deal with Asian partners and the US. Suggesting he's pro-Free Trade is one thing, but agricultural special interests and unions may curb his enthusiasm. The level of subsidies payable to US farmers is not the only issue at play - so too is the flow of migrant labour - migrants who may be critical to Obama's winning in some key Southern States.

Genius

Parody and satire can be best response sometimes. 08wire's mash-up of Key is superb.

Deleted on lawyers advice

Bryan Spondre's keen to protect his talent. Matthew Hooton's been throwing out raw meat complete with wild and unsubstantiated accusations of corruption but any hint of criticism and Bryan deleterious hand descends to obliterate it.

His footprint is left however to tell you you've transgressed:

You’ve not c... Comment deleted because our lawyers told us too. Bryan Spondre Blog Producer.

I'm assuming my comment was considered prima facie defamatory, however it merely said that Matthew hadn't calmed down since Eye to Eye and that he shouldn't lend his considerable gravitas to the whirlygig of the right-wing blogosphere.

Ironic, sure. Sarcastic, yup. Insulting, not really. Defamatory, don't be ridiculous.

What's a little hard to understand is that Matthew's the tough-guy that stood-up to Winston and gave him an ear-full. Is he really so fragile that a gentle prod in the ribs requires editing?

Surprisingly, editing critical comments appears acceptable on the right. In response to a hopelessly ill-informed rant by Cactus Kate on, amongst other things, education comments I made about how well NZ was doing were not published (personal insults were fine but). In response to silly speculation by the wellingtonhive that government was restricting access to critical blogs, my clearly ironic piss-take was deleted also.

At kiwiblogblog, we accepted that our inflamatory posts would attract similarly inflammatory responses. We applied a tolerance in those, but not all, instances.

My advice for these bloggers is if don't want to be mocked; Calm down.

Billions may flow east, what about people?

Sometimes the most deserving stories are simply ignored. Back in August, the government announced it had concluded a deal with the Australian government to permit super portability. This removed an exception that meant NZers could only access their super at retirement, even if they'd left Australia - in this way NZers were being treated as if they were Australians (this makes sense given the fluidity of movements across the Tasman).

The deal is worth billions. Some estimates of unclaimed Australian super suggest 30 per cent of the $13 billion (AUD) could be heading east (though the value of this may have depreciated significantly in the last month). The arrangement requires legislation, however it's expected to be in place in 2009.

I know several people who'll directly benefit from this development - kiwis who've done a few years in Australia but returned home and will now shift their Australian investments back to kiwisaver accounts. I know a few others for whom this might also tip the balance and cause them to return home. This deal depended on the existence of kiwisaver.

In the mash-up of policies National announced recently, Lockwood's immigration policy is nothing of the sort - it's a migration policy that contains almost nothing of substance that'll encourage kiwis home. There's barely a few lines on emigration, the vast majority of policies are focused on increasing immigration.

Scarey brown folk might run the show?

NRT blogs on Rodney Hide's concerns that the Maori Party may potentially hold the balance of power in the next Parliament. Anyone can vote for the Maori Party with their party vote, therefore I'm not at all sure how they're any different from any other minor party? As NRT notes, there might be issues about overhangs and how they occur, but that's not what Rodney focused on.

Our MMP system of government has so far allowed minor parties a fairly significant role in the make up of government. Some parties have managed this better than others. National's faired poorly given that barely managed to see out its first and only term under MMP and NZFirst have shown, shall we say, flexibility. Labour's clearly done well having now managed three full terms - terms during which they've largely implemented their own manifesto while adequately providing space for their partners. I'm sure there'd be a diversity of views about the adequacy of this space however... particularly from the Greens.

Assuming NZFirst are a spent force, there's space for new centre party and the Maori Party may be just the ticket. Both Labour and National have their enmities with some within the Maori Party but both should be able to develop workable coalitions if required. However, can National do what Labour has which is to manage multiple coalition partners? Could you imagine a Cabinet that included both Roger Douglas and Tariana Turia?

Leadership first requires a consistent narrative

Listening to Helen Clark on Checkpoint yesterday confirmed for me what others had been saying: Labour's energised around a clear and consistent policy agenda.

Clark's unrivalled as a political leader. Over nine years, she's built a policy framework that culminated in yesterday's announcement on student allowances. If you focus just on the economics, first fees were regulated, then the loan scheme amended to reduce debt and accelerate repayments, then interest was forgone and now finally reinstating universal allowances. Labour can now say the upfront cost of allowances is comparable to the costs of lending (as I've noted here and here this doesn't take into account the revenue-side).

The economics, however, is only part of the narrative. Each election Labour's refined and extended its investment in tertiary education. In the first term, the focus was on industry training. Here the bought considerable business good will by trebling their investment, allowing companies greater flexibility and lending political muscle to a scheme that had languished under National Ministers (not Lockwood and Birch however). Through the first two terms, Labour wrestled back some control of the system but progressively linking funding to outputs - this might've angered some such as Southern Institute of Technology but it means training is more closely aligned to labour market demand.

Throughout this time, Labour's weathered various storms. Maharey was frequently challenged by the Opposition through the transition as various providers went rogue - none more so that CPIT which rorted uncapped funding to grow low-cost and low-value training. But despite this, a consistent narrative was driving Labour, so much so that it forced the Opposition into line. Key's famous about turn on interest-free loans is the clearest evidence of its effectiveness.

Yesterday Mary Wilson charged Clark with being cynical. Clark easily rebutted this pointing out the consistency with which her government has acted over the decade. When English came on afterwards he had little room to move. Despite the predictability of Labour's announcement, National's never developed an alternative narrative (having abandoned it's pre-99 approach given its failure).

Labour's record on education, tertiary and other pathways, provides it with the strong narrative that National lacks. National would have dearly loved to have campaigned purely tax cuts but its package is not nearly strong enough. Having put so many eggs in this one basket, it's struggling to compete in the final stages of the election. Will Labour's resurgence be enough to recapture the votes it needs? I don't know. However, Clark's position as the premier politician of her time has never been clearer than it was yesterday.

Moving on...

For years and years I, and many many other students besides, argued strenulously for universal allowances and lower fees.

We railed first against Marshall and Goff and then against Lockwood and Creech. We pointed out the apalling inequity that while we were missing out, people who were unemployed were supported. We argued that poorer kids were put off and that education was a right. That your parents couldn't be expected to support you until you were twenty five. Sometimes, things got weird such as when the marriage loop-hole was championed by Shortland Street's Nick and Rachel.

My view then as now is that investing in higher education is vital to our future prosperity.

The left have always been the most amenable to this argument. The right have said its simple self-interest; that farmers don't get tax-payer funded training nor do pilots. Farmers do by the way, see here and here. Progressively however, Labour have modified and improved funding for students and for higher education to the point now where the annual cost of borrowing can be converted into universal allowances. Of course there's a impact on the Crown accounts - future debts will neither be incurred nor repaid but the Crown will still have to meet the costs of allowances. Of course there's some inequity between cohorts; I repaid my loan and I don't imagine I'll get a refund. These are not the main objections however, at least not the ones being trotted out by the likes of Farrar and Hooton.

Farrar and Hooton have discovered fiscal responsibility just in time to pronounce Clark and Cullen unfit. Universal tax cuts might be fine, but universal allowances; Labour's scuttling the boat. Predictable faux-outrage.

I'd have my reservations about this policy absent others but the fact is that Labour's track-record on education is extremely good. Critically for me, they have consistently invested in industry training and have now announced plans to further expand participation. Whereas the tertiary sector risked becoming faddish and irrelevant under Creech's funding system - a system that encouraged all providers to offer degrees and vandalised trade training - changes over the last ten years have created specialisation, refocused providers on local labour markets and promoted research.

I've said elsewhere this wouldn't be my number one priority - that'd be early childhood and special education - but when you examine the overall mix and balance of education policy, Labour's record is unrivalled and soon Generation Debt, a generation created by National, will be a thing of the past.

Political fluffer

There's never a shortage of fools in politics. Some, but not in fact many, are elected but most are content to bray from the sidelines. Foolishness is good copy, fools make great sycophants and fools never know when to shut up.

Each and every election throws up hundreds of opportunities for foolishness. Cameras are mostly trained on the real talent but citizen-journalism provides unprecdented digital opportunity; 15 megabites of fame anyone? Youtube's awash with gaffes, open-microphones and candid asides. A PublicAddress commentator wondered if Stephen Franks apparent homophobia would be "this election's macaca moment" but I suspect Hooten crude exchange with Winston Peters will take some beating.

Hooten's a genuine standard-setter and has clearly been angling for this opportunity for a while. Cheered on by his blog-mates, he's cast himself as people's champion. The one who stood up to Winston on their behalf and said what needed saying. The cool kids will be impressed!

I can't help wonder but, did Willie Jackson, Matthew's mate, just cast him as Winston's fluffer?

Channelling Brian Neeson

You'd have thought John lost to Brian Neeson based on this morning's news that National will lock 'em and throw away the key (sorry, an obvious but compelling pun).

Neeson was the architect of the Degrees of Murder members bill in 1996/97 which, if memory serves, differentiated several categories of culpable homocide, murder, from manslaughter so that an offender could be sentenced not just to prison for their natural life but to thoroughly punative and heavily secured incarceration.

The problem then as now is that the policy is idiotic, expensive and unlikely to reduce violent offending.

Key's tapping into public emnity with the Parole Board which, in releasing the likes of Antonie Dixon, has been in the media too often. There's a boring predictability about this tactic. Opposition's talk up crime every election - here's Brash launching National's 2005 policy:

Parole is a failed experiment. The next National Government will abolish parole as we know it.

I'm inclined to agree with the Standard's analysis, that National's retreading of law and order policies is designed to fill a gap while they re-work their tax policy. Moreover, Steve Pierson confirms that crime has progressively declined since 1993.

I also can't help but think that negative campaigning is the wrong way to go for National. Particularly for Key. What happened to the Labour-plus approach English spoke of? Surely that group of voters are more amenable to a positive strategy - that's my impression of how Rudd won.

Perhaps it's time for a stunt like English's fight for life?

Tax cuts

National's quandry on tax is complicated by the financial crisis. Global demand is likely to soften in the short-term which will impact NZ just like every other country. Cutting personal and/or corporate tax can't offset this and so even if National gets some political advantage going into the election, it still faces the prospect that GDP may weaken over the next three years. That's not their fault, but it's unclear what they will do about it.

I've been impressed by the commentary of the New Zealand Institute. Compared with the Business Roundtable, Skilling's team are unencumbered by past battles and less ideological. Several publications point out that New Zealand's low trade intensity and foreign direct investment are significant constraints on economic growth - Key might have thought his infrastructure plans might improve FDI but that may be less likely now.

A tax cut doesn't lift productivity. A corporate rate cut may improve profits and encourage investors, but by itself, it has only a one-off benefit. National's cure-all tax cuts may realise an electoral advantage later this year, but it is an inadequate response that, alone, is unlikely to realise sustainable productivity improvements. I don't doubt they know this, but they've backed themselves into a corner and must deliver even if it ends up crowding out other options.

Lennon

Brown cardigan boys say: "this amazes me" - me too.

Have I posted this before, I don't recall

Eddie Izzard has become a respectable actor, but was once a brilliant comedian - this lego animation is as good as the original performance.

Meh, kinda walked into that

Bryan Spondre's given me just enough rope... just enough. As he says, it's just the interweb.

Pissing contest and wet feet; there's a certain inevitability.

Chastened but not chaste

QueenBee's site the Hive is a slightly toned down version of the run of the mill right-wing attack site. The language is more muted and the editorial line less didactic but the focus is no different.

Several posts show QueenBee is less and less able to quiet her prejudices. Here she's hyping the already over-the-top story that the Police are at the beck and call of the ninth floor. Here it's the paranoid speculation that right-wing blog sites are being blocked government departments. Plus there's more links to the reprehensible Slater than could be explained as inadvertent.

The Hive is more clipping service than blog. I'm guessing QueenBee's interest is in developing blog-channels back to the MSM, not in providing some new insights for the blogosphere.

QueenBee gave kiwiblogblog a verbal lashing for being not being constructive, I suggest that her own standards have declined inversely in relation to her ratings. It gets to us all after a while.

Update: QueenBee's reaction to my comment is here. QueenBee speculates that something she said about kiwiblogblog "got under my skin"; not really, however had criticism been genuine, it would have been at least heeded by its author. Queen's obsession with metrics is a bit of a giveaway for a new blogger. Controversy is easy and temporarily gratifying, but it's indulgent and only sustainable if you're prepared to plumb the depths Slater does. That is my experience at least.

Not decided but distracted

Endless colours, templates and gadgets - backin15 is a chameleon.

Do you know...

...how Obama's doing?

Hat-tip: brown cardigan

Blogger pathology

I have to stop picking fights. They're largely irrelevant and almost certainly patholical; an opportunity to vent my frustrations at not being in NZ.

Having discontinued my involvement in kiwiblogblog, I'd intended to leave the fray and simply enjoy the PublicAddress cluster of bloggers however, I've once again found myself poking sticks at right-wing bloggers. Most recently Matthew Hooton and Cactus Kate.

Matthew's a legitimate target to the extent that, having built his business by dealing with clients who're pissed off with Labour, he now seems intent on repositioning himself as a commentator when really, he's a cypher. I can't see the logic in his posts on the Police investigations of emails leaked from Brash's office though? If anything they serve only to remind the public that Key's the latest in a long line-up of largely ineffective and dispensiable leaders, plus it leads to speculation about Key's role in Brash's fall from grace. I'm guessing that it is intended as a distraction so we stop talking about Key's inept and/or corrupt dealings with Rail.

Kate though, I don't quite know why I bothered. I've read her blog on and off for a while and mostly I've concluded it's not meant for me - it's meant for younger, more mobile professionals who aspire to know where to simultaneously get a manicure and a cocktail. But her tendency to prattle on about how shit NZ is annoys me and god knows she'll tell you she's got lots of other more important things she could do. Do I know have to check if I've graduated into a class with Rachel Glucina?

Heard it here first

Top Aussie song: Under the Milky Way.

You heard it here first, August 21st 2007, in fact.

I don't agree but.

The top song to come out of Australia is Hunters and Collectors Throw Your Arms Around Me (didn't make the top 20) but perhaps the Church are second. Silverchair's Straight Lines and the Go Betweens Streets of Your Town are in my top 5 also. Crowdies get 6 songs - you could argue they're not an Aussie band but you can argue that both ways so it's a bit pointless.

Over at Larvatus Prodeo there's a suggestion that Kylie's Arse ought to be at the top. This lyric's compelling:

I'm a son, I love my mother.
Love my brother like a brother.
But for me there is another.
Funny how things come to pass.
I must make a confession.
It has grown into obession.
Even if it was clad in hessian.
I'd still love Kylie's arse.

Kinda, maybe, thinking about blogging again...

Deborah has started blogging the NZ General Election at Larvartus Prodeo which has made me rethink my blog-engagement.

This blog's been ignored since October last year when I joined the group behind kiwiblogblog (now deleted). Since we pulled pulled that pin, I've concentrated my efforts mainly at Public Address (which, IMO, remains the standard-setter in NZ) with some forays into kiwiblog and the Standard.

The impending NZ election is terribly distracting for me, it'll be the second I've missed having moved to Sydney just after the 2002 election. I respect the work of both Deborah and Idiot/Savant but perhaps there's a few things I might contribute to the debate here too...

Like starting with this largely irrelevant piece of faux-policy; National's immigration policy. Though it claims to be designed to "bring more kiwis" home, it contains almost no policies that appear likely or even intended to do so. In fact, the 'typo' in the title gives the game away - immigration is usually associated with the arrival of people into a country who are in fact citizens of another. And this policy may do that, but the mislabelling pretends it'll do something else: stop NZ citizens from leaving. It won't.

National's game-playing about migration is well established and analysed (including by the incredibly numerate Mr Pierson). Net Permanent and Long Term Departures (PLTs) are currently higher than they have been in a while and in an environment of skill and labour shortages, that's a problem. It's a problem because it may constrain the economy and could lead to wage-inflation. But it's often over-stated and the solutions are far from simple. David Farrar makes this very point in response to my question:

David, do you have a view about what element(s) of National’s immigration policy will impact on emigration? You’ll think I’m being very partisan, but I can’t see anything that is intended or likely to directly impact on PLT departures.

[DPF: An immigration policy tends to only affect immigration not emigration. You can’t stop people emigrating. The economic policy is more likely to impact on PLT departures and/or NZers returning.]

I tend to agree.

So first, can someone tell Lockwood his policy will not slow emigration and secondly can the National Party please tell us how they'll improve economic growth at a rate beyond what Labour's done these last 9 years?

Abeyance

Life is rich, full and busy... I may return to this blog however there's too much to do outside for the moment so here it endth. For fun and laughs I suggest you go here, here or here.

What are F-16s good for?

Making your mates feel good?

A very clever friend has reminded me that, in the aftermath of the decision to scrap the air force strike wing, Labour commissioned Derek Quigley to undertake a review options "for New Zealand’s air combat capability assesses the value of that capability in meeting Government’s policy objectives in a fiscally sustainable manner"

The report includes this comment on the value of the F-16s:

16. The Quigley Review of the F-16 lease agreed in part with the Whineray report, expressing the view that the need to maintain an air combat force seemed to be based on: demonstrating that New Zealand is serious about its own defence; sending a clear message that New Zealand is committed to broader regional and global security; and, importantly, having an operational capability that can be expanded should strategic circumstances deteriorate significantly at some point in the future.
17. The Quigley review reported that it is questionable whether the New Zealand air combat force would be deployed in direct support of New Zealand Navy or Army contingents in an operational situation. In a submission to the review, the Navy expressed the view that RNZN ships would normally be deployed as part of a larger force with access to layers of defence and support. It saw the provision of air support in these circumstances coming from the air combat assets of a coalition rather than a dedicated New Zealand air combat component. The Army had a similar view about their operational circumstances. Notwithstanding this, both the Navy and Army require training support from the air combat force in order to achieve their operational readiness states.
18. The air combat force equipped with the A-4 Skyhawk in its current state would be a marginal asset to any multinational coalition, and its operational utility will continue to decline. Should the Government wish to retain an air combat capability with some useful operational utility, then it would have to make a significant investment in new aircraft, more modern weapons, and improved combat systems.
19. In the absence of a foreseeable military threat, it is unlikely a New Zealand government would use the air combat force to respond to a low level security challenge around New Zealand or the South Pacific.
20. The air combat force plays a useful role in confidence building in the Asia-Pacific region through its involvement in FPDA activities and bilateral exercises. This is part of the architecture that helps maintain stability in the region. These activities also contribute to our foreign policy objectives. A New Zealand government, however, has not used the air combat force in response to a security challenge in the region for over 25 years. The outlook in Strategic Assessment 2000 makes it difficult to visualise a situation where a government might do so in the foreseeable future.

Emphasis added. For more of Quigley's views on NZ defence matters, check this paper out.

Mitchell on the ABs

This is a great story. Mitchell was, like those before him (Hart, Mains and Wylie and Hart) persona non grata after the 2003 semi-final loss. That he went off and built a team out of nothing (ok out of pots and pots of cash) and has now said he'll not seek another national head-coaching role says something about the bloke (he also advises the ARU against appointing Robbie Deans to head the Wallabies).

Defence matters

Many years ago, as an aspiring student politician, I know that, at some point or other, I said that defence funding should be scrapped to fully fund university education. I hadn't thought it through particularly.

I no longer think that NZ could do without defence funding. We need forces capable of protecting our economic zone and particularly our fisheries, we have regional responsibilities and broader responsibilities to our allies. I do not think however, that our responsibilities to our allies includes having an airforce strike wing and have argued this with David Farrar here.

NZ's military commitments are significant and valued but they are limited. NZ should not attempt to fund the kind of military assets needed to act unilaterally, it should continue to develop a military designed to collaborate in the kinds of UN-sanctioned actions in Afghanistan, East Timor, the Solomans, Bosnia etc.

Incidentally, I recently caught up with an acquaintance who's just returned from Iraq. We discussed Australia's engagement in Iraq compared with Afghanistan and also the difference between NZ and Australia's position. He was clear that there was little support within the troops for the Iraqi mission and that as much as possible, Australian forces avoided hot regions and unreasonable risks - this was a sanctioned strategy, not an ad hoc one. He had been to Afghanistan, and many other places besides, and was frustrated that the current political situation meant Australia's small commitment would not be reviewed until after the election...

Howard has nowhere to hide...

I love parliament. For the most part, it isn't all that important however there are events and issues that can only be adequately addressed in parliament. It is a unique forum; the rules and privileges are unparalleled. Unfortunately, so few make responsible use of it.

Lange was the greatest parliamentarian I ever saw first hand. Keating was probably his equal although I never saw him.

This clip, from around 1995 (I think), shows Keating at his best - Howard has nothing. Sadly, there's no one in federal Labor today that could come close to Keating's intensity or intelligence.



hat tip: browncardigan

Under the Milky Way

Which is the best version? Original? Or the Strawpeople cover (can't find this online)

Immigration Minister wrong

Surprise, surprise, surprise. Andrew's cancellation of Haneef's visa quashed by High Court. Expect an appeal.

Labour Party candidate

A good friend of mine, Grant Robertson, has been nominated as the Labour candidate for Wellington Central. It's likely to be a sought after nomination not least of all because the sitting MP, Marian Hobbs, has done a great job around the electorate as well as leading a team who rebuilt the local party structure. I hope Grant is successful at gaining the nomination and goes on to win the seat. He's a talented, honest and bloody funny bloke who'd make a huge contribution to the NZ Parliament and Labour Caucus.

Strippers Rattle Rudd

Kev's in trouble. How much is hard to tell but news that he visited a New York strip club will surprise many. Kev's a good Christian bloke, so much so that for a time some of his colleagues thought him too much of a prude to lead Labor. Now he's revealed as a bit of bloke who necks a few too many and then ogles the local ladies - well once anyway.

I suspect the fact that he visited a strip bar won't hurt him much, but that he was on official taxpayer business at the time might - Cossie's already making jibes that he'd be far to busy to take such indulgences... plus there's a hint that Kev got a bit too close to some of the dancers...

Children's literacy

I really like the childcare service backin15-junior attends. The childcare workers are caring, diligent, thoughtful, enthusiastic and genuine. More importantly, backin15-junior loves the place. We pay pretty close attention to backin15-junior's development but also don't obsess. We read the reports of the day every day and enjoy the newsletters and updates. All of this preliminary comment is necessary so that the following isn't mis-interpreted.

On the latest newsletter, the literacy program included this little gem!

"Children are developing an understanding of the concept of writing from left to write as well as identifying the letters in their name"

George Gregan

I've looked around in the past for some good footage of Gregan sledging Kelleher at the end of the 2003 quarter final but I've never found it until now (on Nathan Rarere's blog, part of rugbyheaven.co.nz). It's here - further reminder of how close we've come and why we can take nothing for granted.

Gazump

Sydney is obsessed with the property market which makes it all the more strange that it is so incredibly poorly served by real estate agents. Real estate agents are heterogeneous group; many are lazy, unenthusiastic fools whose continued employment is a function of the low entry standards while others make a matzah through diligence and professionalism. My latest experience is unfortunately with the first, and sadly largest, group.

A place, seen only ten days ago, appealed greatly and we clearly indicated our interest by notifying the agent we'd likely bid, obtaining the contract and asking all sorts of questions. We also specifically requested that the agent keep us informed in the event that the vendor received an offer. A week passed during which we made some plans to have building inspections done and talked with our lawyer - we were all ready to make an offer after seeing the place again when we realised it was no longer being advertised. A quick call to the lazy-ass agent confirmed that the place was under offer. Annoyed with his failure to advise us as agreed, but somewhat resigned to missing out, we sent a carefully worded but clearly shitty email to him advising him that he'd both failed in his commitments to us and probably cost his vendor by not seeking our bid.

Jolted out of his stupor, the agent called later in the day to clarify that the deal wasn't closed and that he'd present our offer to the vendor. Gazump? We offered about one percent more but held little hope - in fact I wondered if the agent wasn't simply covering his arse having been caught napping - sure enough, 24 hours later, the vendor accepted the original offer and we missed out. No gazump.

Moral of the story. You can't trust real estate agents - there's a few who're smart business people but the majority are lazy, unethical and interested only in their immediate commission check. That this group remains in business astounds me but is probably a reflection of the generally low professional standards and the dynamism of the Sydney property market. At the risk of sounding like a regulator, I'd significantly increase the barriers to entry and encourage the professional association to develop training and credentials that led to some market differentiation.

Or what about a variation on ratemyteacher? ratemyagent?

How long's a piece of string...

The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry have published some economic modeling as part of their scaremongering against Labor. They had to do it really, the Lib's credibility is shot to pieces by continual rate rises giving the lie to their promise to keep interest rates at "record lows". But it's value is very limited - it'll get plenty of media attention and allows them to erect banners around the country claiming that 316,000 jobs are at risk but it's frankly ridiculous.

The study, conducted by Econtech, is premised on comparing a continuation of the Coalition's IR laws with a complete roll-back of all industry reform since 1993 - including the Keating-led Labor government's Industrial Relations Reform Act - this is a false premise and it totally undermines the value of the report. No party, certainly not Labor, propose a restoration of the archaic and inflexibility of the '80s so what is the point of this exercise?

Professional economists clearly do not have sufficiently high professional standards. If they did, they'd attempt a more meaningful exercise and examine the anticipated economic effects of Labor's proposed IR reforms compared with the Coalition's.

I'm not a professional economist, but have worked with them including on a project that estimated the economic value added by TAFE NSW, and I am fully aware of the way in which deprival econometric modeling is done - but I also know that the limit to this approach is the validity of the underlying assumptions. In this instance, the assumptions bare no relation to reality.

Living the reflection

I live a lot in my head and not always so much in the world. It's noisy frankly and I could make a bit more of an effort to re-balance however I suspect I'm too set in my ways.

I never intended, however, that my blog would be provide an outlet for my thinking about me or about things that really matter - though occasionally it has - mainly because I don't have the courage to be that honest.

Interestingly though, the blogs that I particularly enjoy are either those where I get to share-a-rant or those that give real insight into others' world. In the latter category, for those few readers I have, can I recommend a fellow antipodean, Krimsonlake and an American, Heather Armstrong's Dooce. Go read them now.

Stationery porn

That's an "e" not an "a" BTW.

Commonwealth/State politics involves a fair bit of set-piece drama. The Commonwealth's principal tactic is straight out brinkmanship whereas the States employ a little more tactical variation (though nevertheless still trot out "states rights" which is a polite way of saying "see you in court"). It'll be interesting to see how the current standoff over control of the Murray-Darling basin resolves itself.

Coming from Aotearoa, a unicameral and unitary state, I'm ambivalent about federal systems. One the one hand, they provide for, potentially, more direct and responsive government - particularly if you live in Perth or Darwin. On the other hand, there's duplication, inefficiency and inevitable conflict.

Some work I'm doing falls neatly into the "new federalism" debate - the catch-all phrase to describe the current jostle between the federal Liberal/National Coalition and the Labor-States - and means regular appearances at national sub-sub-Committees of the Council of Australian Governments.

Two things strike me about these committees. First, the level of professionalism is particularly high despite the rancor and tension of Australian politics generally and election time specifically. Secondly, the no-expenses spared cornucopia of stationery. My carefully and lovingly developed folder was stationery nirvana - imagine Bill Gates kids' allowance for their school's stationery day - I had three different colours of paper, two different types of divider and three different types of little sticky labels - plastic not paper - each of which had had printed on them the title of the paper to which they referred. It was a thing of beauty that took two people two days to compile for each of the half dozen officials attending the meeting.

Kerry O'Brien 3, Cossie 1

Good interviewers are a rare breed. Too many wilt under serious pressure, particularly from politicians, or become shrill and repetitive. O'Brien however is supremely confident and calm. His interview with Costello last night could easily have degenerated - he point blank asked Costello how the electorate could be expected to distinguish truth from lies in Liberal party advertising - but for O'Brien's experience.

If you were scoring the interview, the opening gave you an indication of events to come:

O'BRIEN, Peter Costello, nine straight interest rate increases in the last six years. Five rate increases since the last election. I thought we were supposed to trust you to keep interest rates at a record low?

PETER COSTELLO, TREASURER: Well, let's put it in context. 19 interest rate cuts and 15 interest rate rises, so the fact of the matter is that interest rates are lower today than when the Government was elected, and in those 11 years, not only have interest rates come down, but we've had 11 years of continuous growth and 2.1 million more jobs added. So, the fact that you could actually have interest rates lower today than they were before this period of expansion commenced, and before 2.1 million jobs have added, shows you how far the economy has come.

Well matched, one all I'd say, however O'Brien's questioning wasn't about whether or not Cossie and co. were good economic managers, it was whether or not they were honest - honest about both the faults of Labor and their own abilities. Remember last election's scaremongering about Labor's ability to keep rates down?

I relieved by this questioning, relieved that the government are being held to account for their ridiculous claims. I'll concede they're managing the economy well enough, but spare us all the omnipotent crap. Which is why I particularly enjoyed this exchange from later in the interview:

KERRY O'BRIEN: As it's risen nine times in six years, the Prime Minister today distanced himself from the Liberal Party promise at the last election to keep interest rates at "record lows". Do you also disassociate yourself from that Liberal Party promise at the last election to keep interest rates at record lows?

PETER COSTELLO: Well Kerry, I have no doubt that a vote for the Coalition at the last election was a vote for lower interest rates and a vote for Labor and Latham.

KERRY O'BRIEN: Mr Costello, Mr Costello this is a very simple proposition I'm putting to you, a very simple proposition. Can we trust your promises or not?

PETER COSTELLO: Of course you can because Kerry...

KERRY O'BRIEN: The promise was record low interest rates.

PETER COSTELLO: Ok, you've asked your question, now let me give you the answer. The last election you could have voted for Labor led by Mark Latham or the Coalition led by John Howard and Peter Costello. The fact is if you wanted to vote for lower interest rates, you voted for the Coalition, Costello and Howard. I don't think even Kevin Rudd in his wildest imagination would have said that a vote for the Labor Party and Mark Latham would have had us in the situation we're in now. That's what they we're saying. Mark Latham for Prime Minister and the Labor Party. The vote for the Coalition was the vote for low interest rates, it's proven by comparing the historical record, and it's proven by comparing Australia's position in relation to growth in other countries.

KERRY O'BRIEN: But you've left out the word "record low interest rates" Mr Costello, which was what was promised at the last election. So when we see Liberal Party ads making all sorts of claims during this next election campaign, how do we know which ones to believe and which ones not to believe?

Well said that man! Two - one O'Brien.

And finally, O'Brien challenges Cossie to explain the benefit of tax cuts - five in five successive budgets - which merely offset the rising cost of debt? Five tax cuts, but seven rate rises? Cossie's answer is very poor - the tax cuts have not put the government into debt. But Cossie, that's not the point, your books might balance, but do those of the working families on whose good favour you rely for re-election? Three - one O'Brien by my count.

Full transcript and video here.

But how does it know?

Years ago, ten or more, there was an advert for a type of chilly-bin that took the piss out of Australians for being stupid. I don't recall the full script however it included a claim that the chilly-bin kept food warm or cool... the Australian, sitting astride the chilly bin, looked confused... "but how does it know?".

How does my iPod know? Know when I'm most susceptible to the calls of home? Walking back home today, my iPod queued-up the Muttonbirds You Will Return (where the f**k is McGlashan getting strong strong coffee from, not bloody Sydney mate) followed by Dave Dobbyn's Loyal... I almost cried... but then, as if to ensure I understood, Greg Johnson's Don't Wait Another Day and Shihad's Home Again... I shit-you-not!

I'm particularly susceptible because Mrs backin15 and I are once again looking to buy and, quite apart from the fear associated with Sydney-sized debt, I'm struggling with where I want to be? NZ or Australia? Home or this foreign land I quite like?

Either way, I'm not watching any significant Rugby World Cup games with Australians. It's not like they're unpleasant or particularly unreasonable... it's just that I may wish to be and I don't want to feel in any way restricted if, for example, I need to question George Smith's technique, moral fibre or parentage. I also want to be surrounded by fellow kiwis, rugby tragics and hopeless optimists. I want to feel the camaraderie and warmth of fellow devotees and need to know that they too experienced the devastation of '91, '95, '99 and 2003. I don't want to have to hear how good Gregan, Larkham, Giteau are. I don't care if Sharpe's a top bloke or that Staniforth's a try magnet. I want to be enveloped by blackness, by flattened vowels and a shared belief in Richie McCaw's virtue. I don't even want to have a token Australian to mock and bait. I want to drink DB, eat Rashuns and Pixie Caramels and hear only Keith Quinn, Murray Mexted and Grant Fox calling the game.

And at the end, when we've won and William Webb Ellis is held aloft and we are all drunk on relief and exaltation, I want to to be hear...

Ringa pakia
Uma tiraha!
Turi whatia!
Hope whai ake!
Waewae takahia kia kino!

Chronicle of a death foretold

The demise of Howard has been predicted more times than rain on the West Coast. Still, he hangs in there as desperately as does George Gregan. But this must surely be his end? Poll after poll show the Liberal's losing ground despite all manner of dodgy politics including the entirely predictable union smears. Now facing renewed leadership tensions triggered by the release of a new biography, Howard's days are numbered with some even suggesting he might not be leader at the election.

Australian politics is a mess. The detention of Mohamed Haneef appears a gross breach of basic human rights and each day's news reveals deeper and deeper flaws in the case against him - the latest that his diary was tampered with by the Police. And on the eve of APEC, Sydneysiders are being urged to pack up essentials into a "go-bag" in the case of an emergency - this isn't stupid, but the timing suggests a degree of hysteria. Interestingly, BBC World service interviewed random Sydneysiders in a local shopping mall, asking them what they'd pack? Not surprisingly a number suggested beer. Aren't the colonials cute?

And now today's news that NSW Police Commissioner, Ken Moroney, wants the power to take DNA samples from anyone arrested, regardless of their offence, for storage in a DNA database. This is, of course, obscene. The presumption of innocence cannot be said to be meaningful if, on being arrested and regardless of whether you are tried or convicted of a crime, your DNA is stored for cross referencing against future crimes. Moroney appears to be putting his hand up for even earlier retirement.

Thankfully sanity prevailed on the weekend with both the All Blacks and Silver Ferns beating their trans-Tasman rivals. Sadly, even if you have pay-TV, you won't see the final game in the Netball series as, yet again, ABC have decided against showing the decider live...

Crowdies interview

Andrew Denton's Enough Rope is easily one of best interview shows I've seen. He manages to get interviews with the best and brightest e.g. Clinton, Geldoff, Bono, Al Gore, Salam Pax, and even Parky himself (a full list is here) as well also hosting compelling interviews with everyday people including cabbies, driving instructors, removalists.

His interview last night with Neil Finn and Nick Seymour was typical; they were relaxed and open to his inquiries and he was informed and able to explore issues in an interesting and, occasionally new, way. Highlights are available online here.

The show that stands out for me is his interview with Richard E Grant. It's particularly good not just because Richard E Grant is clearly very bright and has had a fascinating life, but also because he clearly liked Denton and, wary of Denton's reputation for having done very good research, had done his own and was able to turn the tables on Denton and pick up on the interesting parallels in their lives. This interview is also online here.

Phone a friend

For decades, NZers have known that South African referees are biased, shonky and corrupt. Touring sides have endless stories about dodgy refs awarding dubious penalties for random (and sometimes phantom) infractions... right?

So how can this site be explained?

Surely a Tui ad?

The loss over here has probably damaged their psyche already, particularly in a World Cup year," Larkham said today after marking his 100th Test with two try assists against South Africa. "They've probably got doubts in a World Cup year anyway with the way the last three World Cups have gone.

The Wallabies beat a second-string 'bok side and suddenly they're on top - a classically Australian attitude. It'll be interesting to see how they're feeling after the Eden Park test. Larkham is, howver, playing Australia's main off-field card; the All Blacks are chokers who'll fumble at the final hurdle - in the likely trans-Tasman quarter final. I doubt it, but by losing at the MCG, NZ are now coping the inevitable. Still, it's the game on 20 October that matters most...

Cock-rock

Dues to browncardigan

Flight of the Conchords

Apparently the Flight of the Conchords are well cool. Don't take it from me or HBO even, take it from browncardigan.



They're a bit like Crowded House really, great but even greater now that someone else thinks so too! I remember when they were regulars around Wellington and generally thought of as pretty cool and pretty funny but nowhere near as cool or funny as we all think they are now... now, since the BBC series and the HBO gig...

Will Tripod feel the same? Somewhat coincidentally, they're touring NZ.

doppleganger

Oh how sweet... they want to reduce your stress levels whilst increasing your energy levels and improving performance whereas I just want you to buy another round...

WTF file extensions...

Cheezy's apparently a .* (no idea frankly) and I'm...


Which File Extension are You?

My Dad once said...

...always, always, always give to the Salvos. Odd thing for him to say really since he was a committed agnostic. But, he was/is a humanist and recognised the unrivaled good work they do. He's a "give alms to all those that ask..." kinda bloke.

But what's a good cause? If you're charitably-minded, how do you ensure you're not salving only your guilt? Planned giving? Giving in to the chuggers who interrupt your lunch with their Bondi-burned brit-patois? Dishing out your credit card details to the 7 o'clock call centre? Not sure frankly. Still, I figure getup is a good cause and particularly the latest campaign to fund a primetime ad allowing Louise Barry, an Australian survivor of the 2005 London bombing, to ask John Howard (again) why Australia is in Iraq...

"Mr Howard, do you think that these things keep happening, at least in part, because of our involvement in the war in Iraq? The situation clearly isn't getting any better. And I don't want what happenedd to me to happen to any more Australians on anyone else for that matter. Prime Minister, please, it's your responsibility to get us out. That would make me feel a whole lots safer."

Young pretenders...

This is not a comment on the Wallabies, John Key or Kevin Rudd; it's about Christine Aguilera and the rest of the woohoohoos who lay claim to R&B or jazz bona fides.

Unlike Amy Winehouse, what is offensive about the woohoohoos is their inability to see the lyrics as the focus of any given song but instead see them as jumping off points for vocal gymnastics. Aguilera's treatment of Lennon's 'Mother' (on the latest Make Some Noise compilation) is awful compared with the brilliant Amy Winehouse's, uniquely updated, version of Me and Mr Jones.

Aguilera seems to think of lyrics as awkward corners; annoying interruptions to be carefully navigated before the real deal; the straights, where the throttle is let-out, diaphragm expanded and full noise, full volume, full whohoohoohoohoohoo...

I'll pay that...

The MCG is a spectacular venue; it is, in fact, the best I've attended in terms of atmosphere. On the weekend however it was not a good place to be as the All Blacks didn't close-out a game they should have and Wallaby supporters are a pretty vocal bunch (particularly when they've won against all odds).

What went wrong? Nothing irredeemable frankly. Yes McAlister missed a tackle or two and so to did McCaw and Jack but our scrum dominated, their lineout was not so flash and, whereas that game is possibly a high-point for the Wallabies, it's most certainly is not for us.

I like the fact that Henry's not panicking and that perhaps it was 'the loss we needed to have'. Either way, the All Blacks should perform well in the next two games. It'd be great to see a settled 15*/22** with maybe only some experimentation around the centre pairing (a game each for Toeava and Smith) and the other lock.

* Carter's not up to his best and that's good. Carter's the best five eighth in the world and needs to peak in the final few games in October, not now.

** Buggered if I know who the best reserves are. Is Mealamu the reserve or is Oliver (depends on the opposition I suspect), is Flavell best off the bench as lock/blindside cover or is Thorne? What about Nonu - better than McAlister at 13, but not 12; better as a back up three-quarter but what about McDonald, Howlett, Sivivatu...

The last time we played at the MCG...

...was almost ten years ago in 1998 and we we lost 24 - 16; Matt Burke scored 22 points himself (but he's in Newcastle now). Quite possibly, as many as four players from that game may take the paddock next Saturday - Oliver for the ABs and Gregan, Larkham and possibly Finegan for the Wallabies. Tells you something that...

The MCG holds a massive 100,000 people - I've been there twice, once on a tour and the second time for last year's Commonwealth Games. Nothing will compare with next Saturday. Next Saturday I expect the All Blacks will win; they'll be tired, combinations will be a little loose and form still building plus the Wallabies will be buoyed by a close loss to the Africans. Nevertheless, across all fifteen players, there's only a couple of Wallabies that can hope to match their opposite (Giteau, Larkham and maybe Sharpe) meaning that if the ABs play to their potential, they should win. I'm tipping at 10 - 15 point victory...

But how many times have Kiwi supporters felt this confident over the last twenty years? Phil Kearns has said that if there was a rugby world cup every year for the next thousand years, the All Blacks would be favourites... Is this year any different? I was pretty bloody certain we'd win in 2003 even after Tana's injury, even after the wobbles against the Welsh... but there I was, surrounded by Aussies, mostly as surprised as I was actually, watching Gregan lauding it over the defeated AB pack - "four more years boys, four more years..."

So this weekend, as confident and vocal as I'll be, somewhere slightly above the pit of my stomach, me and thousands of other All Black supporters will be wishing for a big win, huge win, massive thrashing of epic proportions... 'cause that's a really good predictor of what'll happen in the Cup right?

Darwin

I was up in the north-end last week for a few days, one day longer than intended thanks to my inability to read an itinerary (a 24-hour one), and had a chance to visit the parliament and learn about the bombing in WW II.

I was somewhat surprised to see a frigate patrolling the inner-harbour but it could easily have been for exercises rather than for duty. I've also been reading Peter FitzSimon's book on the Kakoda Track recently, which I'd recommend, which includes mention of the bombing of Darwin which claimed 243 lives. Check out the shrapnel...

I took a photo of the 1962 Remonstance; effectively a petition of Territorian representatives to the Australian Government for more independence (the Australian Constitution provides Territories the ability to self-govern but it is contingent upon Commonwealth law not the Constitution which means the power can be revoked).

It's an interesting place, small - very small in fact, only just over 110,000 people living in just a few population centres (Darwin, Alice Springs and Katherine) and quite different from any of the other capital cities I've visited (all but Perth) not least of all because of the large urban Aboriginal population. I'm only sorry that I didn't get more time to look around...

ANZAC

Good to see that the ANZAC bridge in Sydney, which flies both flags, will soon have statues of both Australian and NZ soldiers. I regularly drive over the bridge and have often wondered why there's no NZ soldier alongside the statue of the digger.

This will soon be fixed as Clark's visit with Morris Iemma included an announcement that a new statue has been commissioned from the sculptor who crafted the existing statue.

Where will it end...

The Stellenbosch trial is designed to speed up the game of rugby. The new rules strip away the complexity and encourage an attacking, open style of play. Many of rugby's pointy-heads agree; too many rules, inconsistent interpretation = confusion and defensiveness. Certainly, I don't like the prospect of a return to penalties as the deciding factor in any test match but neither do would I like to see Test matches become extended 7's tournaments.

Planet-rugby reports the Australian coach, John Connelly, as saying the new rules favour NZ because they encourage non-stop rugby with few set pieces (Connelly isn't quoted saying this however). Again, I hope not as I thoroughly enjoy close matches where scrums and lineouts are attacking opportunities. Besides which, with Carl Hayman in the side, the NZ scrum is as intimidating as Dan Carter with the ball in hand.

Then again, last night's wins by the All Blacks and Wallabies were simultaneously enjoyable and frustrating. Yes there were lots of exciting open play, but neither the Welsh nor the French were competitive. This was, however, primarily a function of the farcical mid-year tours, a point made by Sean Fitzpatrick but I found myself switching to the Swans v Essendon game... which was anything but one-sided. AFL is generally competitive not least of all because of the draft system that means the lowest ranked team has the first pick of the new crop of talent. This ensures no one team dominates over a long period of time.

Would I want this in international rugby, hell no! I don't care if NZ win each and every World Cup game by two penalties to one... so long as we win.