Mitchell on the ABs

This is a great story. Mitchell was, like those before him (Hart, Mains and Wylie and Hart) persona non grata after the 2003 semi-final loss. That he went off and built a team out of nothing (ok out of pots and pots of cash) and has now said he'll not seek another national head-coaching role says something about the bloke (he also advises the ARU against appointing Robbie Deans to head the Wallabies).

George Gregan

I've looked around in the past for some good footage of Gregan sledging Kelleher at the end of the 2003 quarter final but I've never found it until now (on Nathan Rarere's blog, part of rugbyheaven.co.nz). It's here - further reminder of how close we've come and why we can take nothing for granted.

Chronicle of a death foretold

The demise of Howard has been predicted more times than rain on the West Coast. Still, he hangs in there as desperately as does George Gregan. But this must surely be his end? Poll after poll show the Liberal's losing ground despite all manner of dodgy politics including the entirely predictable union smears. Now facing renewed leadership tensions triggered by the release of a new biography, Howard's days are numbered with some even suggesting he might not be leader at the election.

Australian politics is a mess. The detention of Mohamed Haneef appears a gross breach of basic human rights and each day's news reveals deeper and deeper flaws in the case against him - the latest that his diary was tampered with by the Police. And on the eve of APEC, Sydneysiders are being urged to pack up essentials into a "go-bag" in the case of an emergency - this isn't stupid, but the timing suggests a degree of hysteria. Interestingly, BBC World service interviewed random Sydneysiders in a local shopping mall, asking them what they'd pack? Not surprisingly a number suggested beer. Aren't the colonials cute?

And now today's news that NSW Police Commissioner, Ken Moroney, wants the power to take DNA samples from anyone arrested, regardless of their offence, for storage in a DNA database. This is, of course, obscene. The presumption of innocence cannot be said to be meaningful if, on being arrested and regardless of whether you are tried or convicted of a crime, your DNA is stored for cross referencing against future crimes. Moroney appears to be putting his hand up for even earlier retirement.

Thankfully sanity prevailed on the weekend with both the All Blacks and Silver Ferns beating their trans-Tasman rivals. Sadly, even if you have pay-TV, you won't see the final game in the Netball series as, yet again, ABC have decided against showing the decider live...

Phone a friend

For decades, NZers have known that South African referees are biased, shonky and corrupt. Touring sides have endless stories about dodgy refs awarding dubious penalties for random (and sometimes phantom) infractions... right?

So how can this site be explained?

Surely a Tui ad?

The loss over here has probably damaged their psyche already, particularly in a World Cup year," Larkham said today after marking his 100th Test with two try assists against South Africa. "They've probably got doubts in a World Cup year anyway with the way the last three World Cups have gone.

The Wallabies beat a second-string 'bok side and suddenly they're on top - a classically Australian attitude. It'll be interesting to see how they're feeling after the Eden Park test. Larkham is, howver, playing Australia's main off-field card; the All Blacks are chokers who'll fumble at the final hurdle - in the likely trans-Tasman quarter final. I doubt it, but by losing at the MCG, NZ are now coping the inevitable. Still, it's the game on 20 October that matters most...

I'll pay that...

The MCG is a spectacular venue; it is, in fact, the best I've attended in terms of atmosphere. On the weekend however it was not a good place to be as the All Blacks didn't close-out a game they should have and Wallaby supporters are a pretty vocal bunch (particularly when they've won against all odds).

What went wrong? Nothing irredeemable frankly. Yes McAlister missed a tackle or two and so to did McCaw and Jack but our scrum dominated, their lineout was not so flash and, whereas that game is possibly a high-point for the Wallabies, it's most certainly is not for us.

I like the fact that Henry's not panicking and that perhaps it was 'the loss we needed to have'. Either way, the All Blacks should perform well in the next two games. It'd be great to see a settled 15*/22** with maybe only some experimentation around the centre pairing (a game each for Toeava and Smith) and the other lock.

* Carter's not up to his best and that's good. Carter's the best five eighth in the world and needs to peak in the final few games in October, not now.

** Buggered if I know who the best reserves are. Is Mealamu the reserve or is Oliver (depends on the opposition I suspect), is Flavell best off the bench as lock/blindside cover or is Thorne? What about Nonu - better than McAlister at 13, but not 12; better as a back up three-quarter but what about McDonald, Howlett, Sivivatu...

The last time we played at the MCG...

...was almost ten years ago in 1998 and we we lost 24 - 16; Matt Burke scored 22 points himself (but he's in Newcastle now). Quite possibly, as many as four players from that game may take the paddock next Saturday - Oliver for the ABs and Gregan, Larkham and possibly Finegan for the Wallabies. Tells you something that...

The MCG holds a massive 100,000 people - I've been there twice, once on a tour and the second time for last year's Commonwealth Games. Nothing will compare with next Saturday. Next Saturday I expect the All Blacks will win; they'll be tired, combinations will be a little loose and form still building plus the Wallabies will be buoyed by a close loss to the Africans. Nevertheless, across all fifteen players, there's only a couple of Wallabies that can hope to match their opposite (Giteau, Larkham and maybe Sharpe) meaning that if the ABs play to their potential, they should win. I'm tipping at 10 - 15 point victory...

But how many times have Kiwi supporters felt this confident over the last twenty years? Phil Kearns has said that if there was a rugby world cup every year for the next thousand years, the All Blacks would be favourites... Is this year any different? I was pretty bloody certain we'd win in 2003 even after Tana's injury, even after the wobbles against the Welsh... but there I was, surrounded by Aussies, mostly as surprised as I was actually, watching Gregan lauding it over the defeated AB pack - "four more years boys, four more years..."

So this weekend, as confident and vocal as I'll be, somewhere slightly above the pit of my stomach, me and thousands of other All Black supporters will be wishing for a big win, huge win, massive thrashing of epic proportions... 'cause that's a really good predictor of what'll happen in the Cup right?

Where will it end...

The Stellenbosch trial is designed to speed up the game of rugby. The new rules strip away the complexity and encourage an attacking, open style of play. Many of rugby's pointy-heads agree; too many rules, inconsistent interpretation = confusion and defensiveness. Certainly, I don't like the prospect of a return to penalties as the deciding factor in any test match but neither do would I like to see Test matches become extended 7's tournaments.

Planet-rugby reports the Australian coach, John Connelly, as saying the new rules favour NZ because they encourage non-stop rugby with few set pieces (Connelly isn't quoted saying this however). Again, I hope not as I thoroughly enjoy close matches where scrums and lineouts are attacking opportunities. Besides which, with Carl Hayman in the side, the NZ scrum is as intimidating as Dan Carter with the ball in hand.

Then again, last night's wins by the All Blacks and Wallabies were simultaneously enjoyable and frustrating. Yes there were lots of exciting open play, but neither the Welsh nor the French were competitive. This was, however, primarily a function of the farcical mid-year tours, a point made by Sean Fitzpatrick but I found myself switching to the Swans v Essendon game... which was anything but one-sided. AFL is generally competitive not least of all because of the draft system that means the lowest ranked team has the first pick of the new crop of talent. This ensures no one team dominates over a long period of time.

Would I want this in international rugby, hell no! I don't care if NZ win each and every World Cup game by two penalties to one... so long as we win.

End to the phony war

I'm pretty pleased with the All Blacks side to face France in the first test. It balances the need for a good win with the need to develop cover for the RWC. Thrashing the French is important both because this team needs momentum and because the French are highlighly likely to be in the finals.

I've just finished reading Spiro Zavos's book Watching the Rugby World Cup, which I'd recommend for its detailed preview of the Cup including the chapter on who'll win and why. Zavos is firstly a good writer then an excellent analyst of rugby. I didn't know he'd won the Katherine Mansfield Fellowship early in his career.

Apparently, in the history of French rugby, winning at home is far more important than winning at home; winning in defence of your home town and within earshot of the chiming of your local church. This means, if NZ face France in the finals, we need to have beaten them resoundingly and often in the lead-up to withstand their inevitable fanatacism at home.

Zavos suggests the winning team will have some or all of the following attributes; a brilliant five eighth, a dominant pack, an inspirational leader and momentum through the tournament. The All Blacks have these elements, my only fear is that they've fallen too often at the penultimate test and will again, likely, face the Wallabies in the semis. The Wallabies are one of only a very few sides to be able to play significantly better during the tournament than at any point previously. Therefore, I hope the All Blacks crack 40 points against the French and the Wallabies continue to struggle with the Welsh... either way, I'll be listening to the alternative rugby commentary of Jedi and his mates come Saturday.

All things rugby

The rugby year starts on June 2, but already I'm distracted by replays, highlights, commentary and trivia. Here's a clip of a new young bloke in the Wallabies (plus some footage of one of the blokes to have struggled this year).

Thanks to the rugbydump.

France v NZ: deconstruction

Courtesy of the very clever chaps at rugbyroundtable.com, this little clip explains the difference between All Black and French rugby tactics. Want some more? Professor Thian's exposition of the forthcoming Iveco series is here.

Someone give John Clarke a call, I think I've found his long-lost son.

ARU muddle

There's a strongly held view in Australia that the Australian Rugby Union have seriously lost their way. This is the same view that holds that John O'Neil is the saviour - he's always seemed a prat to me. Regardless, current CEO Gary Flowers is no fool. He was one of the group that forged the professional framework including the tri-nations. That said, this is bollocks. Gary, mind-games are a valid form of gamesmanship, but mate, seriously mate, this latest attempt, you know, when all but the Force are at the wrong end of the Super 14 and the Wallabies appear like a bunch of aged journeymen... mate, it's shite. Best you give it a rest.

WTF is John Mitchell on about?

Mitchell's Force and playing the 'Tahs tonight, should be an average game between two ordinary sides where one or two talented players dominate. The Force will target new Five Eighth Beale; fair enough he is (a) young, (b) inexperienced and (c) the bloody Five Eighth for crying out loud. So what the hell is this comment about:

"When you are gifted and instinctive like Kurtley [Beale] you can tend to premeditate what's in your mind as opposed to indentifying what's in front of you," he said. "And when you are challenged by defensive teams in your career those gifted players sometimes don't take the opportunity that the opposition presents. That is probably going to be the biggest growth curve for Kurtley."

I think his point is that rather than responding to what's in front of you, some players determine what they're going to do regardless of the defensive pattern which can get them into trouble... Could he have said it more simply?

The fall and rise of Andrew Walker

Dual international, Andrew Walker is on the verge of signing for the Queensland Reds having spent two years banned from league and union and 6 months playing in France.

I distinctly remember his debut for the Wallabies, he came on as a late replacement in the game of the century. He only played 7 tests for the Wallabies before he ran into trouble as a result of an addiction to alcohol. Eventually, he left the Brumbies to rejoin the NRL playing for Manly however he ran into more trouble eventually being banned for testing positive for cocaine.

I read an article about him a year or so back in which he and his wife talked about his struggle with addiction and his attempts to straighten up (including by starting a lawn mowing business). Personally, I'm really pleased for the guy - unlike Wendall Sailor, who comes across as a deluded baffoon, Walker has always seemed pretty frank about his problems. I doubt he'll get close to international selection but it'd be great to see him in the Super 14.

Lindsay Knight's timely warning

Lindsay Knight's comparison of the All Blacks with the Australian cricket team is a timely warning.

Having watched the Ashes closely, I was amazed to see the Aussie's fall away so badly - even accounting for the fact that a number of players were missing from the side that toured NZ. NZ rugby has depth the equal of Australia's cricketing community, but take McCaw and Carter out of the starting XV and we might be as vulnerable as Hussey's team was in the Chappell/Hadlee.

Whinging Aussies 2

As much as I like to hear coaches and players speak frankly, I've got to say I'm weary of Jones' continual comments about the standard of refereeing. Each week he's been more and more strident in his criticisms, this last week labeling Matt Goddard ""disgraceful", "ludicrous", and "lacking common sense" (never mind that the Australian referee panel said Goddard had performed above satisfaction).

The Reds lost in a boring game by playing boring rugby - rather than slagging the refs, he ought to be apologising for the fact that his side played in the lowest scoring game in the Super-rugby history...

Whinging Aussies

This year's Super 14 is a tough competition. So tough that the pre-match entertainment can influence the outcome of a match according to the 'Tahs. Apparently, a combination of misguided parachutists and an extra two and half minutes at half time was enough to put the 'Tahs off their game...

I thought it was the three tries they gave up inside the first 20 mins.

I can feel a pulse

Despite a hiatus of some weeks, I am still alive.

A holiday to NZ interupted blogging and a heavy workload continues to frustrate. Nevertheless, there's a few things on my mind.

1. NZ internet speeds are woeful - dial-up in Hamilton was better than broadband in Akl.
2. The Mount is still pretty cool but much more development could turn it into Brisvegas.
3. Tui are plentiful in Akl - horray.
4. I watched a compilation of All Blacks games from '96 to 2006; Justin Marshall really was that good, Cullen was as good a Wing as he was a Fullback (but not Centre), Mehrtens had the most sublime pass, what did Alatini do wrong specifically?
5. Australia are right to rest Gilly and Punter and NZ may still struggle in the Chappell/Hadlee but the Australians are vulnerable as the English have proven (and, weather permitting, the bloody Poms may even win the ODI competition - rain has delayed the current game at the SCG - wish I was there... oh Gilly's gone; bowled, lovely ball that and now Pup too - beautiful seaming outswinger, marvelous).
6. Incompensurability.
7. Rudd's advert is very very good and the next federal election will be closer than the last.
8. Apparently John Howard's angry about David Hicks - what that he's not dead or hopelessly guilty?
9. Saint Clair Sauvignon Blanc 2006
10. Parfum is out at the movies soon, it'd better be good...
    

The best team one year out

The All Blacks have been the best team in the world most of the last twelve years but have missed out at the World Cup in the '95 final, the '99 quarter final and again at the 2003 quarter final. Just so we don't all start prematurely celebrating, here's a reminder of what happened each time.

1. First, the dropgoal in '95. Forget the fact that it was extra time.
   
2. Next, France knock us of in '99.
   
3. Finally, Australia and Mortlock steal a win against all expectation in 2003.

If you want another reminder, there's that little gem of wisdom provided by George Gregan to the All Black forwards in the dying moments of the '03 quarter final, "four more years boys, four more years".

Please, please, please give Eddie the job

Eddie Jones wants to coach England; brilliant - if his salary demands are too great, I can think of 4 million people who'll happily chip in to make up the difference.