Tragedy of Cults: Exclusive Brethren

ABC's Four Corners documentary on the Exclusive Brethren disturbingly chronicled four or five cases of families cleft apart by fear, threats of divine retribution, as well as allegations of alcoholism, infidelity, child abuse and illegal financial activities. The documentary didn't deal much with the recent political activity in NZ, Australia and in Canada and elsewhere.

A number of cases of families in NZ and Australia were examined, all of which cohered to the same pattern of abuse where fear, financing and family were used by church leaders against recalcitrant members to first bring them back into line or, failing that, to permanently exclude them from the church and from access to family within the church.

In one case, a member was excluded and offered the rights to a business as a trade for his two sons whom the church wanted to retain. In another, a mother was counselled against leaving to be with her excluded husband and provided with cash as inducements to stay. In a third, a family that left the church was told that God would punish them by taking one of their children - when their eldest son died in his sleep many years later, the parents struggled with the guilt that perhaps God was vengeful afterall?

The documentary also examined the behaviour of the church leaders, including the leader of the Chuch in the '50s, Jim Taylor who entrenched their isolation by banning members from eating or socialising with anyone who wasn't a member of the church. Allegations against Taylor included infidelity and alcoholism, as well as allegations of tax avoidance. A head of the Australian Church in the '80s, Ron Fawkes, claims that he personally illegally transported "tens and tens and tens of thousands of dollars in cash" to the US for then leader, James Symington, and that the Exclusive Brethren have hundreds of millions of dollars in assets.

A full transcript from the documentary is available here and an online forum can be viewed here.

More training but who should pay?

Today's Australian Financial Review (offline only) covers the argument over who should pay for increased vocational training. What's unusual about the story is that the argument isn't between the Commonwealth and the States, but instead between the three leading national business organisations.

On the one hand the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry argue for income-contingent loans (i.e. individuals should pay more) on the other, the Australian Industry Group, with muted support from the Business Council of Australia, argue that industry, governments, and individuals all need to pony up. As an aside, the Australian Industry Group back up their claim with this excellent research.

Unsurprisingly, I'm in the latter camp although I think it is increasingly difficult for TAFE to argue against fees while at the same time providing more and more higher level qualifications.

It is now a near universal consensus that more training is vital to support continued economic growth (this is a variation on the 2002 federal Treasury's Intergenerational Report), however it is good to see some of the more ludicrous statements challenged in the media.

Poll result sets up difficult times for both parties

The latest poll will certainly please Don Brash but is it good news for National? Hard to argue it isn't, but it does make life difficult for any aspiring alternative leaders.

Brash's leadership remains a live issue, not least of all because he keeps making it one, and therefore every other utterance from senior Nat's will be assessed as for or against a leadership spill. In this light, Rich and Brownlee's comments regarding the Exclusive Brethren are a conscious attempt to distance themselves from Brash (and secure their position post a change). Key's equivocation and English's low profile also suggest continued planning.

But, Brash has just delivered the best poll position the Nat's could hope for - can the National caucus move against a leader who is up in the polls? It'd be a change - Bolger, Shipley, and English were all casualities of consistently bad polls.

I think they can and should move against Brash and do so now. Replacing him now enables them to blame the "dirt" rather than his numerous self inflicted wounds. Replacing him now gives any new team just 8 weeks of Parliamentary, during which they'll enjoy some media honeymoon, followed by the Christmas break. Replacing him now gives the new team long enough to develop their own brand and position before the election.

On the downside however, which leadership team has the talent to lead National for the next two years?

Citizenship test updated White Australia policy

Ok, it's not, not really, but it is a move in that direction, a bit of dog whistle politics designed to appeal to the latent racism of the Australian electorate. You'd expect Labor to challenge the move, and they are, but rather than question the merit or motive of the test, Labor are focused on the timing.

Beazley's line is that it's too late, you know, that it should be administered earlier - perhaps in the foreign departure lounge before they board whatever boat, plane, floation aide they're planning to travel on.

"Why wait until somebody applies for citizenship before making them commit to live as part of our society? I don't see the sense in waiting three years to demand a fair go"

Beazley's not the Opposition, he's simply another pretender to the crown; no less unctuous that Costello, Abbott or Downer.

The other thing that makes me think of the White Australia policy is the coincidence of the citizenship test with the suggestion that frequent flyers ought not be subjected to the same scrutiny as everyone else - not content with the Qantas Lounge, corporate cabs and late boarding, now the business traveller wants to avoid the embarrasment of having your privates check for incendiary devices. This isn't racial profiling, it's the reverse, income preferencing.

The other thing about this that annoys me is that all of this debate is going on at precisely the same time that Howard is easing the process by which skilled workers can come and work in Australia. His rhetoric is almost entirely inconsistent with his actions, not for no good reason either, Howard knows that, particularly in the trades and in manufacturing, there's no more South Africans left in the Republic and Australia will have to source new labour from Asian nations (or worse, NZ).

Ahh sod it, thank god the Soprano's is back on tv, pity it's so damn late - 10.40pm.

Brash's leadership at risk

I've blogged plenty on my reservations about Brash's leadership of the National party. I think he's frankly inept and accident prone. I didn't like his election strategy and particularly his comments that Labour supporters weren't "mainstream" New Zealanders - the first time I've noted a kiwi variation on the "unAustralian' epithet common on this side of the Tasman.

That said, politics is a cruel profession and news that is marriage is under threat is just sad. Debate over at kiwiblog, under the horribly ironic heading of Corruption and Morality, is predictably about who is to blame (predictably might be too strong given that I think David had hoped the thread would stay focused on the pledge card). Labour, for seeding the story? NZFirst, for having copies of leaked emails that allegedly contain references to Brash's alleged infidelity? The mole in National for leaking the emails in the first place? Or Brash himself?

I almost don't care. I almost dispair actually. I think an MP's private life should generally be off limits but I suspect this will only get worse before it gets better. Muldoon's treatment of Colin Moyle is probably the high tide mark but Judith Collins allegations against David Benson-Pope were outrageous and cowardly. I also think Brash's comments about Clark's marriage were pathetic. My team are, of course, not innocent - I think the occassional comments about Nick Smith's mental health are gratuitous to say nothing about this current situation.... however that it now seems likely that Brash will be forced out by his own colleagues is almost Shakespearian in its comic tragedy.

World Bank ranks the NZ economy second most business friendly

Well, I've no idea how the right wing blogosphere in NZ will try to discredit it, but NZ has again received a very high ranking as a great place to do business.

The World Bank report, summary here, awards NZ second place overall (last year NZ was first, this time Singapore is) compared with 175 other nations and measured against 10 criteria. NZ achieves the top mark for the registering property and protecting investors criteria and has improved its ranking for paying taxes, enforcing contracts and starting a business. NZ has however, gone down in rankings against licences, employing workers and closing a business.

I'm picking the right will ignore that NZ has ranked in the top two for two years running and will instead decry the negative indicators.

Blair really is going... soon

There will be many, on the left and right, who'll be happy to see Blair depart Number 10; I don't share their sense of schadenfreude.

I distinctly remember Blair's 1997 election, it appeared to me as ever increasing towers of red eclipsing a computer generated map of the UK as New Labour swept the decaying Conservatives out of office. At the time, I was working in the NZ Labour Party Research Unit and we were hoping that just as the Conservatives seemed to have dissembled out of office, so too would National in the coming election (they did).

Blair is now political history. The BBC includes authorised comments from Number 10 confirming that he will soon announce his departure date, suggested to be May 2007, leaving the way for Brown to take the reigns (that is if he too isn't fatally tainted by this shambolic situation) with two years left before the next election.

What it will mean is difficult to assess. In NZ, Clark will need to reassure the public that her ally's demise in no way foretells her own. The Nat's will enjoy talking up the prospect that the New Labour movement is coming to an end. Odd really, given that British Labour ain't so far from where, I imagine, many within National would like to be positioned; economically othodox, socially liberal, internationally active. What it'll mean for Bush and the so-called Coalition on the Willing is far more important. As commentators over at roadtosurfdom suggest, with Aznar and Berlusconi gone, will the Shrub be the last surviving member?

The end of an era? Turning of the tide? Hard to know. I'm hopeful that progressive labour-friendly policies remain ascendent in the UK and NZ (they most certainly are not in Australia). I guess comparisons could be made with the Thatcher/Reagan era but they're weak and premature - Blair and Bush's alliance doesn't stretch beyond Iraq and their domestic policies have little in common.

I'm sorry Blair's going, I admire his ability and respect his achievements. I'm entirely unconvinced of the merits of the war in Iraq and wonder if he had his time again, would he still be so supportive of Bush?

Strip show leads to global warming

God awful headline I know but I just couldn't resist it.

The SMH carries a story about strippers being the after dinner entertainment at the Australia New Zealand Climate Change Forum in Canberra. I wonder if Generation XY will run a competition for the best gag? Anyone know if Merepeka Raukawa-Tait was there?

Watching, listening, reading

I've noticed a fewer bloggers regularly report on things they're reading or watching and so on. I guess I've tended to just talk about the issues I'm interested in rather than what I'm doing but I've found it quite interesting to learn what others, who's writing I enjoy, are reading or listening to. So in this spirit.

Watching: we recently finished watching the first series of Love My Way. Outstanding television drama with excellent acting and compelling story lines. I'll not spoil it by talking about the plot but I will we cried intensely during the last few episodes. I genuinely don't think I've cried that much in years.

Reading: Cocaine: An Unathorized Biography by Dominic Streatfeild. I have read a lot of books about drug culture, including Marching Powder by Rusty Young which I thoroughly enjoyed and strongly recommend, this is a bit different. Its biographical in so far as it examines Cocaine's pharmacology, its history, its economy and, of course, its use. Streatfeild's writing is also very good.

Listening: Modern Times by Bob Dylan. Still unbelievably good despite being in his 60s. This album reminds me of Paolo Conte, JJ Cale and Tom Petty. I'll not speculate as to who has influenced who.

Bush assassinated: documentary

Those Brits sure now how to get a laugh. Apparently, More4, a digital channel in the UK is going to screen a mock documentary that deals with the fictional assassination of President Bush. According to the Guardian:

The drama takes the form of a fictional documentary looking back at the assassination of Mr Bush in October 2007, after he has delivered a speech to business leaders in Chicago. When Mr Bush arrives in the city he is confronted by a massive demonstration against the Iraq war and is gunned down by a sniper as he leaves the venue. The hunt for Mr Bush's killer focuses on a Syrian-born man, Jamal Abu Zikri.

Hat tip: browncardigan

Can I please be a stay at home Dad

It's Fathers' Day soon, my youngest won't care, she's unconvinced by the Gregorian Calendar let alone its Hallmark variations. I'll be at home as it's Sunday and I'm strictly Monday through Friday - actually, I don't work on Friday, I have the youngest at home (one of the very few saving graces of the public service).

I'd like to be home everyday, I'd like to be a fulltime stay at home day however there's a few things stopping me not least of all youngest's enjoyment of childcare. Money's another, career too.

Still, on Fathers' Day I'm going to pretend that I'm a stay at home Dad; I'll do the dishes, hang out the washing from the night before and fold the washing that's dry, I'll cook some stuff that can be frozen and quickly reheated for children's dinners, I'll shop for various things not available through the online grocer, I'll hang out, fold, wash and hang out again... obviously I'll sing a few dozen of the Wiggles greatest hits along the way... but most of all, most of all I'll play with youngest, we'll go to the park, ride the slippery dip, consume sand, drench ourselves in the misfiring bubbler, lose a shoe and have a ball.

Would I really do this every day, instead of whateverthefuckitisIreallydo; you betcha!

Select Committe explores expanding CER

Labour's Dianne Yates is chairing a Select Committee considering widening the CER arrangement with Australia. Anyone who's read Templeton's All Honourable Men will know the interesting history of CER including the fact that Muldoon was entirely unconvinced for a number of years before finally agreeing to sign up. I only hope Yates takes the advice of her officials, is well supported by other members of the Committee and receives informed submissions.

Tracey Nelson: Rugby's answer to Robert Fisk

There are many sports journalists I regularly read and whose expertise I admire. Tracey Nelson, of the haka website, is near the top of the pack because unlike most others, her commentary is grounded on a thorough and complete empirical analysis of the game. Her latest online analysis, of the last Bledisloe, is here and I hope she's going to post an analysis of the more recent game against the Boks (Tracey if you stumble across this humble blog, please include the stats on the kicks in game)

Note the penalty count for the game, Australia incurred 16 (5 of which resulted in advantage to the All Blacks including one advantage that lead to a try) compared with 4 incurred by the All Blacks. I guess that reinforces Helen Clark's view from the stand?

Nelson's view, which you'll struggle to argue with based on her analysis, is that although the Wallabies were playing outside the laws of the game, all three match referees have to take the blame for not control of the game in the first place.

Congestion II: The Chuggers

It's pretty much a safe bet nowadays that any lunchtime stroll around downtown Sydney will involve dozens of chuggers extolling you to donate to their cause du jour. I have no problem with charity and regularly contribute to several, however I do object to every other English backpacker subsidising their pill popping, partying and Bondi beach bonk-fest with a cut from my donations.

I accept that the time of the charity volunteer is largely over, and that professionals now generate more funding for charities but still, can't I eat my barely warm rushed lunch without having to deal with another young Londoner with third degree sun burn asking me to sign on for planned giving?

Interestingly, I watched young school kids today raising money for Legacy week - I wonder if they'll part fund their UK OE by harassing uptight bankers in the City? Could chugging now be a career option/accoutrement?

Congestion

Everything has been hectic this month, not least of all work, and this has crowded out any time I might have had to blog.

Speaking of work, although this blog is entirely a personal distraction, I recently attempted to make use of blogs professionally. I was interested to see if blog commentary differed greatly from the MSM take on a project I've been managing. Two blogs, johnquiggan.com and clubtroppo.com.au, picked up on the story (which got good MSM coverage) and although the discussion is limited, it is very helpful becuase it is (a) more technically focused and (b) it is consistent with some internal feedback. I think blogs will be an increasingly useful and effective channel for public policy debate and formation in the very short term (although I don't think many government agencies will rush to use them as they are far less easily manipulated).

I'll blog some more on the project and report later.

On less pointy-headed issues, the family have decided to travel to France with friends to see a some of the 2007 Rugby World Cup. We've not bothered to try to see the All Blacks and have instead decided to purchase tickets to games in cities we want to visit and so we're off to the South of France (Montpellier for the games). I'm really pleased that one of the games we've got tickets for is Manu Samoa vs a qualifier.

Great to see the All Blacks win the Tri Nations and the Bledisloe. I've enjoyed all the games so far including the win against Australia in Auckland. I was particularly moved by the genuine affection and respect the crowd displayed on the occassion of the death of Te Arikinui and was particularly pleased by McCaw's comments on behalf of the team.

Clark's comments on the Tuqiri's tackle got lots of media attention here. Bottom line, Tuqiri's tackle was very very poor, not malicious in my opinion, but very poorly executed and deserving of the suspension. Phil Waugh on the other hand, his play on McCaw was clearly intended to injure and he is damn lucky to have avoided being punished.

Still on rugby, Sydney will not host a Bledisloe again next year which might have annoyed me but for the prospect of seeing them play at the MCG.

Howard withdraws migration Bill

Howard's no fool. Rather than suffer the sight of Liberal Senator's crossing the floor to defeat him, he's decided to pull the controversial migration Bill.

It is good to see a healthy democracy functioning well; remember this is the first time this government has had control of both Houses.

Lange's memorial service

I'm surprised a year has passed since David Lange died. It doesn't seem that long. Reading news of his rapidily deteriorating health was very hard and his death felt like that of a family member's. I'd have like to have been at today's memorial service.

I grew up in and around David's electorate, lived there until 1996 or 97. My late grandfather stood against him as a candidate for 1977 Mangere by-election. I also met David a number of times.

On one occassion I met David, around 1993/94, he and my grandfather were at odds about local government politics. My grandfather was in fact threatening to sue David for comments he'd made about my grandfather's eligibility for the Manukau City Council. I was about to graduate from Law school and for just one moment, I wondered whether I should make the obvious joke about potentially representing my grandfather... I didn't; one dispute in the family seemed more than enough.

Howard's migration Bill in trouble

Steve Fielding, the Family First Senator has said he'll vote against the Howard government's Bill to allow migrants to be processed offshore. Fielding has previously said he'd wait and listen to the debates in both Houses, however in an interview with Nine Network today, Fielding has said he'll vote against the Bill.

Fielding says:

"What I don't understand is, here we are in Australia saying let's be fair and reasonable but we're not prepared to play by the rules. That's not on. I don't understand where you can have a situation where all of a sudden Australia would say that we're not going to play by the rules. That's not Australian. It's not fair."

With Barnaby Joyce saying his support requires amendments to the Bill, Howard's in a precarious position with a majority of just one and expectation that some Liberal Senators may abstain or vote against the Bill.

Road to Surfdom has a very useful overview of the issues, positions and possible outcomes here.

Finally, a real Liberal or three

Congratulations to Petro Georgiou, Russell Broadbent and Judi Moylan.

These three members of the Australian House of Representatives and Liberal backbenchers have opposed the Migration Amendment (Designated Unauthorised Arrivals) Bill despite not having the numbers to block it from being referred to the Senate.

The Bill will enable asylum seakers to be processed offshore rather than in Australia thereby denying them access to the Australian legal system.

How'd you make a duck into a soul singer?

Put him in the oven until his (he is) Bill Withers.

Hat tip: Spicks and Specks guest and Mental and Anything lead singer Martin Plaza.

Terrorist cricketers, not!

Dean Jones, former Australian cricketer, has been sacked from his job as a commentator after refering to South Africa's Hashim Amla as a "terrorist". Jones, a commentator for the Dubai based 10 network, was commenting on the South African v Sri Lanka series when he said "The terrorist has got another wicket". He has issued an apology and apparently spoke with Amla after the game.

Idiot.

Joke of the day

Great joke from confabulation.

A teacher is explaining biology to her 4th grade students. "Human beings are the only animals that stutter", she says.

A little girl raises her hand. "I had a kitty-cat who stuttered", she volunteered.

The teacher, knowing how precious some of these stories could become, asked the girl to describe the incident.

"Well", she began, "I was in the back yard with my kitty and the rottweiler who lives next door got a running start and before we knew it, he jumped over the fence into our yard!"

"That must've been scary", said the teacher.

"It sure was", said the little girl. "My kitty went 'Fffff, Fffff,Fffff' … and before he could say "Fuck," the rottweiler ate him!"

Power walking pop by Ok Go

Ana at Spareroom has put me on to Ok Go, a four piece with a thing for treadmills. Check it out their video from YouTube.

Goddam, I'm a lowly insect

TTLB have upgraded my status (again), initially from insignificant microbe to wiggly worm (skipping multicellular microoganisam altogether, quel scandale) and now to lowly insect. If only I knew how or why, I'd give appropriate thanks.

I'm not sure what happened but I note that all my in-bound and out-bound links are showing up too. It's little moments like this that keep bloglife interesting.

Optical illusion

browncardigan again - No dolphins or cows though, what gives?

Check out this clever optical illusion; if someone can explain how it works, that'd be cool.

Annoying questions you can't answer

Even more annoying than having the latest Shakiraguilera song stuck in your head (what are you doing listening to FM anyway?) is the inability to recall a song that you know you know, or at least ought to know from your youth (you almost certainly were listening to new FM).

It's annoying on two fronts. First, you can't remember it. Second, what if you're wrong? How will you ever know? Confirming that something doesn't exist is a whole lot harder than confirming that it does.

That said, I'd like to help out Cheezy, a Brit-blogger with an interest in kiwiana. Cheezy recalls a song, Buzz Off, about which he thinks he knows a few things but can not yet confirm it's existence.

He knows it was sung by a Maori duo and that it ended with the line "buzz off". He thinks it was around about 1982 and was on a talent show of some sort (now they were tragic). What Cheezy wants, and what I now want too, is to recall the details and lyrics thereby restoring his/my claim to kiwiana pop-culture expertise.

Help!

Rates up as predicted

The Reserve Bank of Australia have this morning announced the third cash rate rise since the re-election of the Howard government. The cash rate is now 0.75 basis points higher than it was at the 2004 federal election.

Hardly what voters expected when Howard assured them of his government's credentials as managers of the economy. One of two things must therefore be true, they aren't great managers, or the limits of their managerial control was overstated for effect.

It's mostly the latter. Government's tend to overstate their influence over the day to day peformance of a largely deregulated and globalised economy and this situation exemplifies the risks.

Spam flowers

Crasster has found this incredible imagery of spam somehow transformed into the most beautiful flowers. Buggered if I know how it works, what the hell is ASCII anyway, nor do I understand where he finds this stuff?

101 uses for a John Howard

He has to go some time! 101 uses for a John Howard make some suggestions for John and Janette after the Lodge; #27 Dog Whistle.

Rampant political cross dressing

Could it be true that the traditional divisions between left and right, between capitalist and socialist, between conservative and progressive are no longer relevant? Blair says so. Sure seems that way in many places. Hell, we'll have to invent new names to call each other!

How can this continue?

There simply can't be an absolute right or absolute wrong in the current Israeli/Hezbollah fighting. That said, if half of the media coverage of the killing of UN observers and of the 50+ civilians at Qana is right, then I only hope that the temporary halt to Israeli airstrikes is extended.

Over at Larvatus Prodeo, weathergirl quotes some of the most offensive comments about the conflict from around the blogs. Warning, this link contains images that will disturb (and may not be work safe).

Long John Howard

It is all but confirmed that John Howard will not stand aside for Peter Costello to take over the leadership of the Liberal Party or the Prime Ministership. Almost every media outlet in Australia is reporting leaks of a letter Howard sent to senior Libs advising them of his decision. Fairfax are reporting that he'll hold a press conference later today, Monday 31 July.

This will largely put to rest the leadership debate until the 2007 federal election when Labor are sure to revive it and hope to gain some advantage by suggesting Howard won't serve out the term if elected. In a tight race, that will sway some voters but will it be enough? I guess Howard and his supporters think the answer is no; or at least not as many who'd vote Labor if Costello was leader.

Costello must now wonder whether his pre-emptive strike (sanctioned or otherwise) was worth it. At least one commentator, Gerard Henderson (who is close to Howard), speculated that the recent confirmation of a leadership deal between Howard and Costello would likely delay Howard's retirement as Howard would not be chased from office.

If Howard wins a fifth term in government he'll certainly go down in the history books and may even surpass Menzies as the longest serving PM. If he loses, any legacy he'd hoped to secure will be soured.

Interestingly, Howard's last campaign was based on the claim of superior economic management compared with Labor - will this still be true if the Fed Reserve put up the cash rate as expected on Wednesday? A third rate rise in this term of government?

Labor are predictably saying they're happy though I suspect they'd rather the less popular Costello was leading the party in 07.

Bananas drive up Australian CPI

Echoing Paul Keating's famous line about Australia becoming a banana republic, the soaring costs of the fruit have directly contributed to increases in the June quarter CPI figures released today. The Treasurer announced a 1.6% quarterly increase but still talked down the prospect of an August increase in the cash rate (yeah right).

Fruit, particularly bananas, contributed 52% of the increase, and fuel 11.2%.

The price hike on bananas is down to cyclones in Queensland in March this year which devastated production. In 2005, Australia produced 20 million plus cartons of bananas, something like 270 000 tonnes, worth AU$320-350 million but this is less than half of one percent of total bananas grown worldwide... (crasster links to this report on the global trade of bananas).

So you'd think that even in domestic production was down, imports should be reasonably priced? Maybe you could still buy a 'nana for under a dollar; fuhgeddaboutit. More like $2.16 each (Coles online Wed 26th).

Why so damned expensive? Australia bans all banana imports on the basis of the risk of "infestation". Bollocks. It is one of the many dubious non-tarriff trade protections applied to agricultural products by federal Liberal/National coalition government as a sinicure for their supporters.

So when your mortgage payments go up in August, remember that it's for a good cause; it's keeping uncompetitive Liberal/National party donors in business.

Dave Dobbyn live in Sydney

Dave Dobbyn is a remarkably loveable character, a doyen of NZ music, and a fantastically talented muso - still able to rock out at nearly 50!

With family and friends, and lots of other ex-pats, I saw him last night at a great venue in Newtown, Sydney called the Vanguard. Opening with Whaling and closing with Loyal, he played all the favourites as well as stuff from his new album. Highlights for me included Be Mine Tonight, Beside You, Just Add Water, Language and The Lap of the Gods (Dave advises there's only one). Enough to make you want to be home.

Don's superb speech secures spot

Don's speech to the National party conference contained some fantastic lines. Seriously! There are five that really stood out:

1. When he said that Cullen was the better Minister of Finance. You didn't hear it? Sorry, but surely that's what he meant when he said "if National wants to win next time we have to think of something .... like abolishing GST on petrol."
2. No? Ok but what about the quote from Boetcker, you cannot establish sound security on borrowed money, that's got to be a rejection of Key's plan to borrow to fund tax cuts surely?
3. And the English slap-down. You know, remember when English was leader? That's a bit harder I agree, only a very few of you remember that, only perhaps 27 of you?
4. Then the "bring it on" line. Don was channelling Francis Urquhart with his comment that "A leader is not intimidated by the fact that others will one day have the ability and drive to assume the top mantle." Don't look now Don...
5. Finally, it's good to see that he's moved on from Orewa with the other Boetcker quote, the one that goes "you cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting [race] hatred".

Great stuff Don.

Don Brash: rappa, sk8tr, hipsta

When was Don's last good media story? Not the walk-the-plank thing, not when he called a press conference to denounce a leaked email but didn't have the damn thing, not the Exclusive Bretherens, not the gone by lunchtime thing either... Nevermind, he's hip now, all is fine.

Terminal.

Hat tip: Keith Ng

I love the Big Lebowski

But this is not work safe... not where I work anyway.

The Big Lebowski: the really f**king short version

Hat tip: browncardigan

Thanks too to Dave and Andrea...

Hoff vs MacGyver

Mellie at Randomcontributionz blogs about who would be the most expensive to insure; Michael Knight, Mitch Buchannon or MacGyver?. NZ's Accident Compensation Corporation ponders the big issues.

• Mitch's dickstickers are a risk
• KITT's turbo boost risks head and neck injuries
  
• but then again MacGyver works without safety equipment and who knows who is underwriting Phoenix Foundation (perhaps they self insure)?

I wonder how long it will take for the less hmourous trolls to howl about the public service wasting tax payers' dollars?

8 changes to All Blacks squad

Henry's saying it's simply part of the rotation policy, the SMH are focusing on the fact that Reuben Thorne's back in the run on side (and I can't resist saying I told you so), NZ paper's are saying it's slap in the face to a Bok team thrashed by Australia, likewise the UK press.

It makes sense however, if Henry is committed to developing two full squads for the '07 World Cup, and given last week's result.

As an aside, Jake White's criticism of Paul Honnis is ridiculous; even if a few decisions went against the Boks, Honnis was excellent on the day and is clearly one of the best referees on the international circuit. A point well made by Spiro Zavos. I did like Honnis's comment that he must be "the scapegoat of the week".

Update on the Riewoldt "gay slur"

Earlier I blogged on a stupid comment Nick Riewoldt made on radio. Since he has apologised, not to everyone's satisfaction, but I tend to believe he genuinely regrets the comment.

Last to know

My buddy Chris tells me this is a tricky song to play, something about the first stroke (is it up, rather than down, or down, rather than up...), anyways it's one of Neil Finn's finest; last to know and my little girl likes it too!

Muriel Newman should be a talkback host

Grabthar's hammer does a 'number' (a poor pun I know) on Muriel Newman's latest missive. Newman said:

"At the heart of the child-abuse problem is a dependency culture that Maori have embraced."

Another candidate for voxidieological.

NSW State Liberal's corrupt, right wing, uber conservative Christians...

Hardly surprising I know but ABC's episode of Four Corners last night, The Right Stuff, interviewed a stack of former Liberal Party office holders, parliamentarians, as well as a number of members all of whom confirm branch stacking, petty thuggery, and vote rigging.

The alleged goal is to convert the Liberals into a ultra-conservative Christian party, primarily through careful preselection of candidates; it has already cost one Leader his job - former Leader John Brogdon claims he was brought down by an increasingly powerful faction led by David Clarke.

Former federal Liberal Leader, Dr John Hewson says: "It's the hardline right religious element that you should worry about, in my view, 'cause they have no concept of the broader realities in the electorate."

There's even the spectre of Opus Dei... A full transcript is online.

Rebalance: sport, sport, more sport

1. I'm nervous about the Boks on the weekend, Henry's right to say they can't have two shockers in a row...
2. Swannies miss out in the last few minutes against the Eagles making two loses in a row, they're still in the top eight (yeah and what was Nick Davis thinking?)
   
3. In an interview on 702, Liz Ellis tells of having severe asthma as a child however she still went on to be an elite athlete (I like Liz, but I have to point out that the Silver Ferns, have won won all of their recent encounters against Australia and long may it continue)
   
4. Have you seen the footage of Ali Williams 'tackling' George Greegan; priceless (thanks Russell Brown).
5. Brendon McCullum belts 160 for Glamorgan.
6. Really must get that bub some baby beige.
7. Oh dear, The Chaser's in trouble for their parody of Bulldog's fans; a little too close to the truth perhaps?
   
8. Michael Campbell launches a new charitable foundation.
9. I think Mauger will go on to be one of the best second five eighths of all time, John Schuster was one my favourites (the 1987) but is Warwick Taylor still the benchmark?
10. It's worth remembering that Buck Shelford never lost a game as captain of the All Blacks; 14 tests in four years.
    

Astroturfing defined

I've been out of the PR/lobbying scene for a while so perhaps "astroturfing" is common parlance, but I'd not heard it until I read this blog by Corporate Engagement.

Astroturfing, a play on the phrase grassroots, is defined as in Wikipedia as:

"a form of propaganda... techniques usually consist of a few people discreetly posing as mass numbers of activists advocating a specific cause. Supporters or employees will manipulate the degree of interest through letters to the editor, e-mails, blog posts, crossposts, trackback, etc."

Not a new tactic, just a new name? Every other political campaign includes an element of orchestrated spontineity; it backfired spectacularly on the National Party Research Unit at the live leaders debate out at Avalon last year.

Another own goal

Cactus Kate points out the ridiculousness of National's latest attempt at scandal. Their wastebuster's website, a list of the most banal examples of government's spending imaginable, was itself funded by taxpayer dollars. The story, rather than being on government expenditure, is now about how stupid National are, or as Cactus Kate puts it, "rank amateurs".

Recalling the Shipley coup

Around the time Shipley was looking her most vulnerable as leader of the National party, mid-2001, I caught up with Colin James on entirely unrelated issues but ended up discussing the prospects of an English coup.

English seemed reluctant to move against Shipley and the media were speculating as to why. James, with his typical perspicacity, suggested that English would want to wait; that he'd move only when he though he could sustain any momentum generated by the change through to the election in 2002. However, James thought English might be forced to act earlier by a caucus anxious to avoid a rout. He was right on both fronts though the routing still occurred.

This is precisely the position Key and English find themselves in now. Brash must go, but when? The polls appear to be turning against Brash, but two years out from an election is probably too far for Key (and he's smart enough to know it) and English won't want to repeat the experience of 2002. So where too from here? Perhaps Brash will do a Captain Oates and force the issue?

Voxideological

Redletter has the bilefile, an irregular round up of the most bilious of comments from around NZ's blogs, I think I'll start a complementary list tracking the most inane and/or ludicrously ideological commentary; I'll call it voxideological.

My first award must go to Lindsay Mitchell. With a few weeks left in July can Lindsay add to her already impressive list of scandals and abuses? She's wacked welfarism, polaxed prisons, trashed teenage pregancy, dumped on the DPB, flayed father-less-families, stuck it to school exams but championed corporatising school lunches, monstered Maori gambling, beat back breast feeding zealots, attacked addicts for having families, and finally, slapped Sir Bob Geldof back into his box for daring to suggest government might increase their foreign aid.

Ena Sharples would be proud!

What any father might wish for their child

Maia has blogged about her concerns for how a friend's baby boy will grow up. She's copped a fair bit of flack for some of her comments, but it got me thinking about what I'd wish for my girls. This is no definitive list, but it's my top of mind top five (with apologies to Nick Hornby)...

1. Love. I hope they continue to enjoy the love of a large and diverse family complete with aunties, uncles, friends, mentors & odd, inexplicable others.
   
2. Health. I hope my girls enjoy rude good health.
3. Humour. The world is divided into net energy consumers and net energy producers, all the funny people I know are producers.
4. Courage. The courage of Katherine Mansfield, please not Ed Hiliary, who once said "I believe the greatest failing of all is to be frightened".
5. Luck. A little good fortune goes a long way as said John Bradford.
   

Most Australians are happy with their employment arrangements

83% employed Australians are satisfied with the way they are currently employed, with just 11% saying they are dissatisfied (6% were unable to say) according to a special Roy Morgan survey.

Interestingly, those who believe they are employed under an AWA, report a slightly lower satisfaction rate at 75%. But this cohort, 17% of the sample, is four times larger than the actual number of employees on AWAs - Roy Morgan concludes that there's clearly a lot of confusion about the new IR regime.

Hat tip: catallaxy

Gen XY competition

Gen XY are masters of irreverence. Join in their competition to coin a new phrase for Wellingtonians. As an Aucklander who considers Wellington home but is in exile in Sydney, I couldn't resist though MINTY (Mainly Ineffective Non Taxed Youth) doesn't exactly roll of the tounge. So far my favourite is Boudicea's WASABI (What Another Supercilious Adrift Beehive Imbred).

Liberal's implode...

It's Labor only hope really and it looks like it could happen. After years of simmering rumour and speculation, Cossie confirms there was a deal between him and Howard and Howard's not only lied about it, he's broken it. Will this be the begining of the end?

32 - 12

Sure the restarts weren't great and there was some sloppy play but 32 - 12 is a great result and we got Kapa O Pango back. Mealamu was superb! Connelly has a lot of work to do. The Bledisloe is almost safe for another year.

Lindsay Mitchell's personal note

I've been commenting on and about Lindsay's blog recently. She's responded here.

I don't agree with Lindsay's approach to social policy, in fact I pretty much completely disagree with it, however I have no desire to offend her.

I hope Lindsay is not implying that by disagreeing with her libertarian politics I am somehow inured to violence against children. I am not.

Greg Combet on IR

Polemica quotes Greg Combet from an interview in the July issue of the Monthly. Combet's a smart operator and this is a very succinct and useful summary of the ACTU's opposition to Howard's ideological reform of IR in Australia.

"I recognise that markets distribute resources fairly efficiently. And you need to harness that," he says. "That's an extremely important recognition, because you can't hold that and believe in a command economy. But what I've also recognised is that the distributional effects of a market economy on working men and women can be devastating, and therefore you need a range of protections and rights for people."

"This is what drives the fundamentals of my work now: acknowledging that markets generate wealth, but in doing so create inequalities. It's these inequalities that governments much address. That's the defining political difference between the conservatives and Labor."

Flipper goes burger crazy

brown cardigan again, more cows, though this time dolphins too in this Salon-hosted animated kids story (entirely work safe unless you work at Sea World)

I liked Nick Riewoldt...

But this is just purile and homophobic. I hope he at least tries to retract the comment formally.

Hat tip: Anonymouslefty

Previewing the Bledisloe

Clup Troppo's regular sports blogger, Patrick Fitzgerald, previews the Bledisloe here and tips the Australian's to win 36 - 20. Patrick's analysis is pretty interesting but I disagree on a couple of points, not least of all because I am as hopelessly optimistic as he confesses to be. I'm picking:

• Jack and Eaton, as well as McCaw and So'oialo, to compete well against a big jumping Wallabies pack.
  
• The ABs scrum to be a real weapon.
  
• I agree with Patrick that the battle of five eighths will be interesting and, if Carter does dominate, it'll be becase of the blokes in front of him but Carter's tactical kicking is better than Larkham's and he may well be able to apply enough pressure for the scrum and set pieces to work for the ABs.
  
• I think Chisholm's selection will make life hard for George Smith and therefore, I think the ABs will win the loose ball competition (plus McCaw is the undisputed master of the breakdown).
• Muliana will have a challenge with Mortlock an co, but the ABs midfield is strong enough and I don't see the game being very open.

It's going to be a close game and it'll be a barometer for how both teams are developing ahead of the World Cup. My tip for the result is a good but not big win to the All Blacks, say, 25 - 13.

MacDonald's sponsored schools?

I don't mean to pick on Lindsay, as I've said in my earlier post, she's no troll and her views appear genuine. However, her latest comments on private funding for school education are typical of the simplicity of arguments. Lindsay describes as dingbats the Victorian teachers union who express concern about the potential for a company like MacDonalds to have a funding partnership with a public school. She doesn't elaborate on her dismissal of them, or even address their arguments, nope, they're just dingbats. Classic ad hominem.

I actually think public/private partnerships are a useful device for financing major infrastructure development (though you'd have to wonder which investment firms would want to work with NSW Labor given the cross city tunnel disaster), and I think local industry should have a good working relationship with local schools (Labour's Gateway programme is a classic example, School Based New Apprenticeships in Australia is another) however I can't see how public/private partnerships make sense in the ongoing funding of schools? Besides this, surely there's an obvious risk around conflicts of interest. Do public schools want to promote MacDonalds? What about Rothmans? Or Lion Nathan?

Stumbled across Lindsay Mitchell

I don't quite know what to make of Lindsay's blog. It certainly appears genuine and she's no troll but there's something malevolent about it.

The posts are reasonable in content but repetitive in their cynicism and negativity. I suspect that Lindsay wants to see real improvements in social wellbeing in NZ but her solution appears to be to deny those in need the most basic of benefits, benefits that accrue to all citizens of first world nations, in the hope that they'll pick themselves up by their bootstraps.

Her Prison vs Work post was what clinched it for me. So trite and simplistic; like offenders calculate their meal allowances by forecasting protein quotients and floor space?

Yeah it really did have to happen...

The haka with handbags. It is amusing. I guess.

I hope its not seen as culturally inappropriate; I don't believe it is.

Turning your back on the haka is inappropriate (John Eales regrets that he once did) but this parody, while certainly not reverential, mocks the ABs, not the haka, for the the handbag incident.

I think?

Either way, we'll win on the weekend and that'll be the end of it.

Bledisloe test - will we even see it?

According to the Press, we'll at least be able to see the Bledisloe cup test on the weekend, unlike the Super 14 final...

More on AWAs...

The ACTU campaign against Howard's IR reform has been given a boost by the mining industry. Here's a case of a very well qualified person, sacked for refusing to sign an AWA that required her to give 12 hours notice ahead of taking sick leave or else lose a day's pay and incur a $200 penalty. So much for claiming they have skill shortages!

A full transcript of the ABC 7.30 report item is available here.

The Australian also features the story and quotes the mining employer body, the Australian Mines and Metals Association, as saying the agreement was probably unenforcable.

Newspoll shows support for the Liberal's down to 35%, the worst performance since the October 04 election. Howard's still comfortably ahead of Beazley though.

Gattaca crossover to rugby

Want to own a sample of the combined DNA of the 2006 All Blacks? Nope? Me neither.

(Un)fortunately Craig Waugh, adidas NZ Marketing Manager and vampire, explains how (not why though, that'd be too weird) this year's commemorative All Blacks poster actually includes a sample of the team's DNA. Don't believe me, watch the video; from extraction to print production.

Coming next: Interactive tours of the locker rooms where you can wear Richie McCaw's headgear or Piri Weepu's jockstrap.

Exclusive Brethren expose: Weekend Sydney Morning Herald

The Sydney Morning Herald this weekend includes a significant feature on the Exclusive Brethren church's recent political activities in Canada, the US, Australia and New Zealand. The pattern in each country appears the same:

• an anonymous group publishes its support for right/conservative politics/politicians in the last few weeks before an election
• the focus is on homosexuality, environmentalism, and neo-classical economic policy
• despite media enquiries, the true identity of the group is obscured and not clearly identifiable on the propoganda
  
• eventually, the group is identified as being members of the Exclusive Brethren but the church claims no role and the activities are described as being down to individuals.

In Australia, the beneficiaries are the Liberal party and John Howard in particular; the targets were Bob Brown, leader of the Greens, and a gay man. In NZ, it was Brash that received the Exclusive Bretheren's support also at the expense of the Greens.

NZers support Australia in moment of defeat...

Cow abduction

Cattle-terrorism, cows disguised as deer, cows disguised as grass.

It won't help; 89,000 cows abducted and counting...

Hat tip: browncardigan

Economic experts say Workchoices bad for productivity

BIS Shrapnel have released their latest Economic Outlook noting that labour and skill shortages will severely constrain Australia's economic growth in coming years. The June 06 report (the media release is public, the report is for subscribers only) argues there is an urgent need for policies that improve labour productivity and increase the pool of skilled labour, however it states:

"the Federal Government’s latest WorkChoices legislation will do little to improve either and is deflecting the debate away from how to grow the pie bigger, to how best to cut it up."

Interestingly, since the election of the Howard government in 1996, real public and private funding for vocational education and training has declined 18% per student (compared with a 25% increase for private secondary students) according to research (presentation only) by the Monash University Centre for the Economics of Education and Training.

Tana to Toulon

According to planet-rugby and the Sydney Morning Herald, Tana's signed with French second division side Toulon.

According to Tana's agent, Rob Brady, the deal's not yet done.

So what about the NZ Herald? They've got this story both ways; the headline says it's done but the story says it's yet to be confirmed.

25% of AWAs being investigated for breaches of minimum standards

The AFR reports (not online) that the employment regulator is investigating almost a quarter of new Australian Workplace Agreements for breaches of the pay and condition minimum standards:

• 14% of AWAs have been found to underpay workers
• 11% have breached leave standards.

The Office of the Employment Advocate urges some caution with these figures however as the sample is small. That said, it's a troubling start.

Dust: won't cause asthma, has no calories

According to the Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, you no longer need to obsessively vacume your house to avoid asthma. Their research, which followed 600 kids with high risk family histories, suggests that "avoiding house dust mite allergens from birth does not prevent the onset of asthma, eczema or atopy in high-risk children." Marjorie will be pleased.

Swannies win the flag in 2016...

My mate Dan Field-Read has just been selected in the Sydney South Pigeons which is a team selected as part of the NSW AFL talent development strategy. A star in the making, Dan's a modest chap who captains the Newtown Swans U13s (when he's not otherwise busy caring for my daughter). Paul Roos will be pleased.

Policy buzzwords: Innovation

For a number of years I've been working on various policies and projects that are directly or indirectly focused on innovation and productivity. Yesterday I went to a conference where two Australian academics with extensive international experience, Roy Green and Jonathan West, spoke. Here's a few key points that I took from their presentations:

• Innovation is not concentrated in any one specific industry but is concentrated within only a handful of firms within any one industry
• Major impediment to innovation is the management of risk, therefore only large companies or major financial institutions are able to pay for innovation (and generally capture the benefits of it, compared with those that actually have the ideas)
• Because of this, Ireland have systematically developed domestic investment capability/instruments to offset the risk of a major decline in foreign direct investment funds e.g. Enterprise Ireland
• Australia has the fourth largest private investment funds but less than 1% is invested in technology stocks - primarily because the large super funds prefer blue chip stocks over riskier investments
• In manufacturing, companies that have low staff turnover tend to be the most innovative - Japanese companies particularly exhibit this characteristic and, against global trends, have increasingly stable workforces (note that the Australian workforce is one of the most casualised according to most commentators)
• Innovation has not created thousands and thousands of jobs, it's probably deleted them, a classic case study is the impact of online banking on employment in the banking sector

Food for thought. Papers from the conference will be online here.

Updating the threads

I was at a conference yesterday, which I might try to blog on as it was surprisingly good, and so didn't get a chance to update a few threads.

Chloe of Wainui and Lynn of Tawa are the preferred alternative leaders of the National Party, having won 47% of the votes to defeat Key and any of his potential running mates.

• Any suggestions on their major policies and/or points of difference with the current administration?
• I imagine Chloe will not be wearing Trelise Cooper!

I picked Ruben Thorne's recall right but I'd selected Tuitupo and not the third halfback, Cowan. I also picked a second specialist number 8, Tuiali'i, as well as Kaino but instead the selectors have gone with a third hooker, Hore (who was in my squad but ahead of Oliver) and a fourth lock.

Alkatiri did go - Gusmao's brinkmanship succeeded. This morning on 702 they're reporting that Gusmao will call another election if he can't find, and have the Parliament confirm, another Prime Minister. Here is a link to ABC's Kerry O'Brien interviewing Horta about the situation.

All this heat and light signifying nothing...

I don't recall the precise quote, however my big brother did this and I've always thought it was fantastic....Can you hear us

Alkatiri reported to be resigning

The Sydney Morning Herald is reporting that Timor-Leste Prime Minister, Mari Alkatiri, is about to resign. This follows significant speculation as who would ultimately win the very public showdown between President Gusmao and Foreign Minister Horta, on the one hand, and Alkatiri on the other.

For excellent background information and an overview of the constitutional issues, check out Club Troppo's piece from last Friday.

All Blacks tri-nations squad

Former All Blacks Sean Fitzpatrick and Richard Loe have picked their squad for the tri-nations but what about the armchair experts?

backin15 ABs

Backs: Muliana, MacDonald, Hamilton, Gear, Rocokoko, Howlett,
Toeava, Tuitupo, Nonu, Mauger, Carter, McAlister, Weepu, Kelleher

Fowards: Tuiali'i, So'ioalo, Collins, Kaino, Thorn, McCaw, Masoe, Jack, Williams, Eaton, Hayman, Somerville, Tialata, Woodcock, Mealamu, and Hore.

The only surprises here will be the inclusion of Rueben Thorn over Flavell and Andrew Hore over Oliver. Oliver I thought had a pretty poor game against the Pumas losing his first two or three throws.

Key can't count...

Grabthar's Hammer points out a major stumbling block to John Key's ascendency to the Treasurer's job; he can't count. Key claims that Kiwis are moving to Australia in record numbers when in fact the numbers have been dropping since January this year:

"the number of departures has dropped 36 percent and the net-departures have dropped 33 percent"

Oppositions always use scandal, rumour and wild speculation to make political points but they must at least get the numbers right!

Elsewhere, there's a discussion about whether Key also mis-stated the difference in incomes in Australia and New Zealand.

Hat tip: Haydn at Grabthar's Hammer and No Right Turn.

Two teams, three close results...

I still think Graham Henry's got it right and NZ needs to have two full teams both capable of playing in next year's Rugby World Cup but I am a little nervous based on the last three weeks results. Henry has said as much himself. In no one game, did the All Blacks dominate and in a fortnight, they're up against the Wallabies who looked pretty good against Ireland.

National leadership poll: who and when?

National leadership poll: who and when? Key/English in October '06 Key/English before end of '06 Key/English by July '07 Key/Rich anytime Chloe from Wainui and Lynn of Tawa    Free polls from Pollhost.com

Ten reasons 1970 was a bad year for music

Each to their own of course, but had I been able to write a list of musical misadventures, I'd have started with:

1. Hendrix died of a drug overdose
2. not to be outdone, so to did Jopin
   
3. The Beatles officially split up
   
4. that git Beck was born
5. as was Mariah Carey
6. Michael Jackson's vocabulary peaked with ABC
7. David Cassidy obscurely sang I think I Love You with the Partridges
   
8. The Carpenters got Close to You
   
9. James Taylor got a start, and is apparently still touring, with Fire and Rain
10. and Robert Altman declared that Suicide is Painless
    

Birthday tomorrow

It's my 36th birthday tomorrow. There's five things that I'd like:

1. Dinner with my wife
2. A hug and kiss from my baby
3. The day off
4. To watch Australia to beat Croatia at the pub
5. To finish my book.

Not too much to ask... better than dying aged 36 as did Doc Holliday, Bob Marley, and Princess Diana.

National's Cub Scout Shadow Ministry

It has long bothered me that the pretender to the office of Prime Minister has neither been a Minister nor a member of a government. He's in fact the first leader to be unable to win his own seat. Sure he was the Central Banker, but the two roles don't compare - Helen's not pimping to take the role of Govenor of the Reserve Bank so why trust Don with the keys to the ninth floor? Likewise Key is light on experience to be asking to be the Minister of Finance. The simple fact is that being a Minister is not like being a banker or a sharetrader. These are both complex roles, sure, but they're not the best preparation for senior government office.

Looking across National's front bench, they're incredibly light on parliamentary experience. From my quick review, only English, Ryall and Carter have been in government. Brash, Brownlee, Key, Power, Collins and Rich all joined after National moved to the left of the Speaker.

Good old David Farrar, irons in too many fires me-thinks, claims that in 1999 Labour was light on experience but he's quite wrong. Aside from Clark and Cullen, Goff, Sutton and King had all been Ministers and Mallard had been Chief Whip.

35 year old dies on the Kokoda Trail

The SMH reports that a 35 year old man died on the Kokoda Trail last week. The Victorian had been in training for four months. Terrible news for his family.

As I'm shortly to celebrate my 36th birthday and was thinking about taking on the Kokoda Trail with a friend in 2007, I might rethink...

Human rights in Singapore

In 1996 I worked on Alick Shaw's campaign for Wellington Central during which David Lange spoke at a fundraising dinner. I was reminded of this because of comments by various bloggers, No Right Turn and David Farrar particularly, about Helen Clark's recent meeting with Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. At the fundraiser, Lange told a story about one of his first meetings with the then Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew. Lange had been advised by his officials that he should raise New Zealand's concerns with Singapore's tendency to imprison people without trial. Lange agreed and raised the matter only to be told that "it was so much less controversial than executing them". Progress of sorts?

I can't help but note that some of the less sensible commentators on Farrar's blog regularly refer to Singapore's economy as an example for New Zealand to follow but seem conveniently ignorant of the poor state of human rights.

Four Corners on Timor Leste

Four Corners story on the near collapse of Timor Leste last night, Monday 19 June, was one of the best pieces of investigative journalism I've seen in years.

At the heart of this story is a dispute between Prime Minister Alkatiri and the President Gusmao. Gusmao clearly wants to sack Alkatiri for his failure to curb growing civil unrest but is constitutionally restrained from doing so without first going to parliament, a parliament controlled by Alkatiri. However, Jackson alleges that Alkatiri has been "stoking the fires" by arming civilians and inciting them to violence. If these allegations are proven, Gusmao will be able to act.

Jackson was able to interview all the main players, including Alkatiri, Gusmao, and Foriegn Minister Horta. She also tracked down eye witnesses who claim to have documentary evidence that Alkatiri provided civilians with weapons - this frequently meant trekking into the mountains surrounding Dili.

The full transcript of the show is online and it will be repeated this Wednesday evening at 11.35pm (and also on ABC2 on Wednesday at 7pm and 9.30pm). ABC and Jackson must be odds on for a Walkley for this piece.

All Blacks beat Ireland, Wallabies flog England

The All Blacks have beaten the Irish two-nil to maintain their record of 19 wins and one draw (10 all in 1973). The Irish played very well albeit in conditions that made it difficult for the All Blacks to play their expansive game (they tried anyway). The Irish now take on the Australians in Perth. This should be a close game.

I thought Casey Laulala played pretty well and although the Haka website is critical of him, I prefer Wayne Smith's comments. Smith said Laulala made all his tackles and three line breaks. It's a pity that the Haka site aren't posting Tracey Nelson's analysis, a detailed breakdown would be useful. I still have my doubts about Flavell. Though his high tackle on O'Driscoll was neither malicious nor particularly serious, it still cost points. I don't remember the last time Rueben Thorn conceded a penalty?

England's second straight loss to the Australians doesn't signal their demise nor any Australian resurgency. Both teams are rebuilding after the last World Cup. New coach Connelly will however be pleased that his selection experiements did not backfire.

Wellingtonista

I've just discovered a blog about Wellington, Wellingtonsta. A fine town, still my spiritual home, particularly when the weather's good (which sadly isn't all that often). Nevertheless, there's more to a place than its barometric reading! Great coffee (Masi), great bookshops (Unity), record shops (Slow Boat) and the ever present prospect of getting into a drunken argument with Winston Peters...

Included are some shots of Wellington including an old photo from the Millard Stand at Athletic Park... anyone remember the last test match played there, NZ beat Australia 43 - 6, in atrocious conditions (not including fog however).

National's volatile leadership

David Farrar's sadly muted company of malcontents are debating the prospect of changes to Labour's leadership team. This little head-fake is designed to divert attention from the mounting pressure on Brash and Brownlee.

The simple point is that Labour has had strong and very stable leadership since 1993. Firstly Helen Clark and David Caygill, and then Helen and Michael Cullen. Over this same period, National have had 4 leaders (Bolger, Shipley, English and Brash) and even more deputies (McKinnon, Creech, Sowry, Brash himself, Nick Smith and now Brownlee).

When Brash and Brownlee are replaced, as they must surely be for National to be even vaguely competitive in 2008, whomever replaces them will be the fifth and eighth leader and deputy respectively.

Offer me suggestions, offer me alternatives

and I decline...

Goddam Youtube sucked up another evening of work.

1. Coolest REM song is It's the end of the world as we know it
2. No alarms and no surprises is a weird video (Karma Police looks like David Lynch directed it)
3. Noel's ok, Liam's not, and despite all their bullshit, Oasis recorded some great songs like Live Forever
4. Yeah, so I like Coldplay (paricularly in never never land with my chosen family)
5. Shihad are the Duane Monkley of rock.

And the Andrew Brough/Fits track, Down in Splendor, is on the Love My Way soundtrack - I was surprised!

Mark Latham is not a criminal

Mark Latham's very public demise has at least avoided a criminal conviction. Earlier this year he got into trouble when he took exception to a photographer taking pictures of him with his kids. This is fair enough, but Latham actually wrestled the camera from the News Corp journo, took it home and smashed it.

Today the courts put him on a good behaviour bond for two years rather than finding him guilty of malicious damage. The SMH reports that the judge in the case describe Latham's actions as:

"...way out of line. He has certainly overstepped the mark in relation to the
photographer."

Latham is a tragic character and he's lucky to have avoided the criminal conviction. That said, I think the judge has clearly determined that the journalist's actions were provocative in handing down this sentence.

NSW in deficit

While the federal government enjoys the spoils of an ever increasing surplus, NSW is now officially headed for a $696M deficit. Treasurer Costa has decribed the situation as one off, I'll leave it to others as to what this might mean...

Two blokes on the rise

As I drove the 3 kilometres home from central Sydney tonight I caught a lengthy discussion (did someone say traffic jam) between Malcolm Turnbull, Bill Shorten, and someone else (who runs Harris Farm Markets) on 702. Both Turnbull and Shorten were clear, concise, and articulate. Both put their points strongly but without invective or malice.

Turnbull, federal Liberal member Wentworth, for did a great job of simultaneously slagging Bob Carr and NSW and advocating greater investment in public transport. Turnbull neatly avoided criticising public/private partnerships but still made it clear he saw the cross city tunnel as a disaster.

Shorten, AWU national secretary, likewise was strong on public transport and infrastructure generally, but was at his best on IR. In what was close to the ideal radio grab he detailed the findings of a recent study that found almost 100 percent of respondents had lost conditions since the workchoices reforms were enacted. In response to the hosts challenge that the same study found that workers also report wage increases, Shorten noted that the research showed that for many this increase was only a few cents... (I'll track down the report).

These two blokes appear well placed for future leadership roles within their respective parties . Both would be a hell of a lot better than the incumbents.

More on the Snowy

As I familiarise myself with the Australian blogosphere, I've come across two blogs which also discuss Howard's move to stop the sale of the Snowy.

Polemica notes that Howard's put Iemma and Beazley in the odd position of being pro-privatisation while he heroically stands in their way.

"A conservative government, rabidly pro-privatisation, has pulled the plug on the sale, leaving Iemma and Beazley - notionally but not necessarily anti-privatisation - out to dry in the middle of the political desert."

Likewise Larvatus Prodeo quotes Howard in full rhetorical jingoistic fervour.

"I have listened to that, and it is important that on occasions a government have both the courage and the willingness to change its mind on something."

Political leverage

The Commonwealth exerts enormous influence over the States with a relatively limited effort. Take the latest phoney war over the sale of the Snowy Hydro scheme (jointly owned by NSW, Victoria and the Commonwealth). The PM was supportive of privatisation although he expected strong public opposition but then he had a change of heart. Something about it being an "icon". This led to the NSW Premier, the majority shareholder, saying the deal can't proceed.

Iemma will be disappointed by Howard's backflip for a number of reasons. Firstly, Howard beat him to it and secondly, NSW need the cash.

In the lead up to the NSW state elections next year, expect to see more of this (in health and education particularly). Howard has probably only delayed the sale, but the delay will further expose the new NSW Premier and give the NSW Liberals a better chance of winning in 2007. This is a clever tactic and an effective application of George Kennan's containment doctrine.

Shane Warne's love child

Australian cricket has a well deserved reputation for knowing how to make a buck. I suspect Steve Waugh is not happy about their latest effort however. Shamelessly trading on his reputation as a family man and all round good bloke, he was Australian of the Year in 2004, Cricket Australia are selling a lifelike baby dressed in Australian garb called "Little Steve". He can be yours for a lazy $250 AUD.

I guess calling him little Shane wasn't an option?

The (nuclear) power and the passion

John Howard's set to announce an inquiry into whether or not Australia should build nuclear power plants. The issue is controversial, unsurprisingly, and today, 4 June, the papers are carrying stories about an old Cabinet paper that identified 14 potential sites where the plants could be located.
This is interesting for all sorts of reasons but the one aspect that really appeals to me is the prospect of Peter Garrett playing a strong role in presenting Labor's position.

Garrett's been a little quiet since entering parliament only a year or so ago, but this is precisely the sort of issue to leverage his profile. He's been on ABC radio once or twice since this story first broke but both more senior members, particularly Jenny Macklin and Anthony Albanese may pull rank.

He did make these comments a few weeks ago however:

"...this government has been delinquent and negligent in its ability to actually address climate change. There was nothing virtually in the Budget to deal with it. We were a blocker of Kyoto. We have not supported our renewables and our alternatives in anything like the kind of way we should. We are seeing about a half billion dollars of investment halted in wind. We are seeing the fact that nukes won’t really satisfy the problems of meeting reduction in greenhouse emissions and yet the Prime Minister is prepared to fly the kite."

A full transcript is here.

Gillard's unparliamentary language

Julia Gilliard, federal Labor's spokesperson on Health, got kicked out of parliament last week for calling the Minister of Health, Tony Abbott, a "snivelling grub". Odd thing was that a week earlier Abbott himself had referred to a Labor member as a snivelling grub and despite the protests from Labor, no action was taken against him.

The difference in the treatment of the two parliamentarians has little to do with their respective parties but is down to the views of different Speakers. The first was under the Deputy Speaker, Peter Lindsay, whereas the second was under the Speaker himself, David Hawker.

You can hear both comments as well as the Speakers final comment on the matter thanks to the ABC.

Wallabies (probably) won't win William Webb Ellis

There's a story in today's, 4 June, Sun Herald (not online however) about Stephen Larkham being the essential player in the Wallabies RWC campaign. This is one of the reasons I can't see them winning in 2007. Larkham is a brilliant player, easily one of the best first five-eighths in the world, however he is injury prone and the Wallabies don't have adequate cover.

• Mat Rogers is not playing enough rugby in the number 10 jersey
  
• neither is Giteau
• Sam Norton-Knight is a good player but can't command a starting spot in the Waratahs.

Contrast this situation with the All Blacks who will be able to call on Carter, Luke McAlister and Nick Evans, all of whom are first choice five eighth for the respective teams and all of whom have been and will be playing in position in the lead up to the competition.